Of Footnotes, Missing Data, and Lessons for 50-State Data Collection: The Gubernatorial Campaign Finance Data Project, 1977-2001

Jensen, Jennifer M.; Beyle, Thad L.

doi:10.1177/153244000300300204

Cited by 38 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…To this end, we asked a set of 10 research assistants unfamiliar with our hypotheses (and with the election results) to rate the apparent confidence of the candidates in our sample. 22 The difference in average confidence ratings received by the Democrat and Republican candidates in each race in our sample is not statistically significantly correlated with either the Democrat's share of the two-party vote or the share of participants predicting the Democrat to win. As a consequence, including this confidence measure as a control in a regression of vote shares on participants' ratings has no meaningful effect on the magnitude or statistical significance of the estimated effect of candidate appeal on electoral success.…”

Section: Discussion and Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…The predictive power of participants' ratings survives controls for 22 The research assistants' ratings are reasonably correlated with one another, with an effective reliability (R) of 0.77 (Rosenthal, 1987), suggesting that the ratings did identify a common element among the clips. 23 We thank a referee for pointing out that selection bias may cause us to underestimate the relationship between personal appeal and election outcome.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

Benjamin

Shapiro

2006

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We showed 10-second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants' predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects. In a horse race of alternative forecasting models, participants' forecasts significantly outperform economic variables in predicting vote shares, and are comparable in predictive power to a measure of incumbency status. Participants' forecasts seem to rest on judgments of candidates' personal attributes (such as likeability), rather than inferences about candidates' policy positions. Though conclusive causal inference is not possible in our context, our findings may be seen as suggestive evidence of a causal effect of candidate appeal on election outcomes.

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Section: Discussion and Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

Benjamin

Shapiro

2006

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“…ing and cost per vote (Jensen and Beyle 2003), total campaign contributions, and business and labor contributions in the election cycle between 1998 and 2001. All these correlations are in the expected (negative) direction.…”

Section: State Campaign Finance Regulation Stringency Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Note: These are the Pearson's correlation coefficients between the composite stringency index and subindices developed in this article and previous stringency measures. *p < 0.10; **p < 0.05 Source: Gubernatorial spending and cost data are from Jensen and Beyle (2003). Contribution data were compiled by the author from the National Institute on Money in State Politics (http://www.followthemoney.org).…”

Section: State Campaign Finance Regulation Stringency Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring the Stringency of State Campaign Finance Regulation

Witko

2005

State Politics Policy Q.

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Scholars are beginning to consider how state campaign finance regulation influences political behavior and elections, but they lack the systematic measure of these regulations needed to do so. This article describes a simple measure of state campaign finance regulation stringency that is based on state statutes in 2002. Further, this article explains the construction of the measure and assesses its validity and reliability. The index generally confirms qualitative assessments of state campaign finance regulation, and it is correlated with measures of related aspects of state campaign finance regulation, campaign spending, and fundraising.

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“…Campaign spending data were obtained from the data made available by Jensen and Beyle (2003) Downloaded by [Queensland University of Technology] at 02:31 02 November 2014 As mentioned, one explanation for the lack of success of female candidates is their inability to acquire sufficient financial resources.…”

Section: The Current Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Novelty Impact: The Politics of Trailblazing Women in Gubernatorial Elections

O’Regan

Stambough

2011

Journal of Women, Politics & Policy

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Although women candidates for public office have experienced greater success recently, women candidates for executive offices are still considered to be a novelty in much of the country. This study examines the electoral impact of novelty status for female gubernatorial candidates. We propose that the novelty of female gubernatorial candidates negatively affects the level of support women candidates receive from voters and their likelihood of winning the gubernatorial election. We develop the concept of novelty status and test its impact on female gubernatorial candidates by examining female-male gubernatorial elections from 1980 to 2006. Our findings suggest that novelty status negatively impacts the success of women candidates for governor. These results are important as we continue to develop our understanding of the barriers women face when they seek elective office and how this situation might change when a woman's candidacy is no longer considered a novel event.KEYWORDS women candidates, novelty, elections, governor "When a woman candidate is no longer a novelty, the thinking goes, success becomes more likely." (Clift and Brazaitis 2000, 16) As the introductory quote suggests, when women are no longer thought of as unusual in the political world, we will see more women elected to political office. Some argue that women are not as much of a novelty as the statement

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Of Footnotes, Missing Data, and Lessons for 50-State Data Collection: The Gubernatorial Campaign Finance Data Project, 1977-2001

Cited by 38 publications

References 4 publications

Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

Measuring the Stringency of State Campaign Finance Regulation

The Novelty Impact: The Politics of Trailblazing Women in Gubernatorial Elections

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