Ocean warming hotspots provide early warning laboratories for climate change impacts

Pecl, Gretta T.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Frusher, SD; Sauer, W. H. H.; Bates, Amanda E.

doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9355-9

Cited by 39 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Allison et al ., ; Cochrane et al ., ; Gasalla & Diegues, ), but there is still only limited practical experience in adaptation to climate change in coastal communities (e.g. van Putten et al ., ; Shelton, ; Shyam et al ., ), as well as an urgent need to improve and test the theories and practices that underpin existing efforts (Pecl et al ., ). To develop such theories and design practical solutions, a clear picture of how climate change will alter multiple environmental properties in the ocean is needed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Analysing climate change impacts in such hotspots – regions that are experiencing high rates of change in this dominant climatic driver – may be useful in science–policy partnerships to facilitate an increase in the capacity of local communities to adapt to climate related change (e.g. Frusher et al ., ; de Sherbinin, ; HP14; Pecl et al ., ). In this study, we have analysed key climate change‐driven ecosystem stressors in five temperature‐defined marine hotspots in the Southern Hemisphere.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

Popova

Yool

Byfield

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above‐average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test‐beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal‐marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high‐resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO 2‐driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature‐defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

Popova

Yool

Byfield

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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“…The smallest increases in SST occur in southern Australia, while the largest warming is projected along the north-west coast of Australia, to the south of Western Australia, and along the east coast of Tasmania. Southern Western Australia and the east coast of Tasmania were also identified by Pecl et al, (2014) as two areas (globally) in which SSTs will increase most rapidly in the future. The Tasmanian SST warming in particular shows large change across ESMs, with median changes as large as +4 K, and 90th percentile changes exceeding +7 K above the historical period (1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) under RCP 8.5 by the end of the century.…”

Section: Projected Changes: Sstmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marine projections of warming and ocean acidification in the Australasian region

Lenton¹,

McInnes²,

O’Grady³

2015

AMOJ

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In response to increasing carbon dioxide emissions the oceans have become warmer and more acidic. In this paper, the ability of Earth System Models to simulate observed temperature and ocean acidification around Australia is assessed. The model results are also compared with observations collected at stations around Australia over recent years to assess how representative the model results are of the coastal domain; and are found to adequately simulate the mean state at most sites.Simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under low, medium and high emissions scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 respectively) are then used to project how ocean acidification and sea surface temperature will change. Under each of these emissions scenarios the oceans around Australia exhibit warming and continued acidification. However, these changes are quite heterogeneous, with increases of up to +6 K (under RCP 8.5) above the pre-industrial value, projected in areas such as the Tasman Sea. We conclude that the projected changes in SST, aragonite saturation state and pH are likely to profoundly impact marine ecosystems, and the ecosystem services that they provide in the Australasian region.

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“…This includes temperature and acidification that impact the physiology of species; currents and winds that can impact the dispersal of species, including recruitment of larvae; and extreme events (e.g., tropical cyclones, marine heat waves) that can damage habitats (e.g., coral breakage, coral bleaching) or impact physiological processes of relatively sessile species (Wernberg et al ., ). In southeast Australia, one of the world's fastest warming marine hotspot regions (Hobday and Pecl, ; Pecl et al ., ), the impacts of climate change have already been recorded throughout the entire food chain (Frusher et al ., ). The marine heatwave in Western Australia in 2011 saw summer water temperatures in several localized areas increase by over 5°C resulting in major impacts on the coastal ecosystem including localised extinctions (Wernberg et al ., ).…”

Section: Climate Change: Another Dimension To Fisheries Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

From physics to fish to folk: supporting coastal regional communities to understand their vulnerability to climate change in Australia

Frusher

Putten

Haward

et al. 2015

Fisheries Oceanography

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Our oceans comprise valuable assets that provide a range of social and economic benefits directly and indirectly through provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services. Fisheries rely on these services and are regionally important industries for many coastal communities. With a growing population and increasing demand for seafood production, impacts from climate change that alter the productivity of marine ecosystems will have flow‐on implications for economic and social systems. As small coastal communities are often highly dependent on marine‐based activities they are also expected to experience greater impacts from changes in productivity of marine resources than their larger and/or non‐coastal counterparts. To assist coastal communities in evaluating their vulnerability to climate change we have developed a hybrid socio‐ecological vulnerability index that combines an ecocentric index – i.e., an ecological vulnerability index – with a sociocentric index that focuses on adaptive capacity as a measure of vulnerability, and embeds a sustainable livelihoods approach. Through the use of an on‐line tool, coastal communities can improve their understanding of their vulnerability to more appropriately adapt, embrace opportunities and minimize negative impacts that may arise from climate change and its effect on marine resource availability.

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Ocean warming hotspots provide early warning laboratories for climate change impacts

Cited by 39 publications

References 23 publications

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

Marine projections of warming and ocean acidification in the Australasian region

From physics to fish to folk: supporting coastal regional communities to understand their vulnerability to climate change in Australia

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