Ocean temperature impact on ice shelf extent in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Etourneau, Johan; Sgubin, Giovanni; Crosta, Xavier; Swingedouw, Didier; Willmott, Verónica; Barbara, Loïc; Houssais, Marie Noëlle; Schouten, Stefan; Damsté, Jaap S. Sinninghe; Goosse, Hugues; Escutia, Carlota; Crespin, Julien; Massé, Guillaume; Kim, Jung Hyun

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-08195-6

Cited by 55 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…EN4 is a global, quality-controlled, objectively-analyzed, dataset of observed potential temperature and salinity profiles which has been used extensively (e.g., Prieto et al, 2015;Yang et al, 2016;Zunino et al, 2017;Chafik et al, 2019;Etourneau et al, 2019). It combines data from all types of profiling instruments, including ship-based measurements and ARGO floats, and is available as monthly averages (Good et al, 2013).…”

Section: En4 Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Significance of Climate Indices to Benthic Conditions Across the Northern North Atlantic and Adjacent Shelf Seas

et al. 2020

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The northern North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, are influenced by several large-scale physical processes which can be described by various climate indices. Although the signal of these indices on the upper ocean has been investigated, the potential effects on vulnerable benthic ecosystems remains unknown. In this study, we examine the relationship between pertinent climate indices and bottom conditions across the northern North Atlantic region for the first time. Changes are assessed using a composite approach over a 50 year period. We use an objectivelyanalyzed observational dataset to investigate changes in bottom salinity and potential temperature, and output from a high-resolution ocean model to examine changes in bottom kinetic energy. Statistically significant, and spatially coherent, changes in bottom potential temperature and salinity are seen for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and Subpolar Gyre (SPG); with statistically significant changes in bottom kinetic energy seen in the subpolar boundary currents for the NAO and AMOC. As the climate indices have multi-annual timescales, changes in bottom conditions may persist for several years exposing sessile benthic ecosystems to sustained changes. Variations in baseline conditions will also alter the likelihood of extreme events such as marine heatwaves, and will modify any longer-term trends. A thorough understanding of natural variability and its effect on benthic conditions is thus essential for the evaluation of future scenarios and management frameworks.

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Section: En4 Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Significance of Climate Indices to Benthic Conditions Across the Northern North Atlantic and Adjacent Shelf Seas

et al. 2020

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“…The ocean (Etourneau et al, 2019) and atmosphere (Mulvaney et al, 2012;Thomas et al, 2009;Morris and Vaughan, 2003) is already warming along the Antarctic Peninsula. This results in a southward progressing of the annual 2m-air temperatures of -9 • C or -5 • C isotherm, which presents the range of thresholds for the stability of ice shelves suggested by Morris and Vaughan (2003, -9 • C) and Doake (2001, -5 • C), respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation Ansatz dependent Future Sea Level Contribution by Antarctica based on CMIP5 Model Forcing

Rodehacke¹,

Pfeiffer²,

Semmler³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Various observational estimates indicate growing mass loss at Antarctica's margins but also heavier precipitation across the continent. In the future, heavier precipitation fallen on Antarctica will counteract any stronger iceberg discharge and increased basal melting of floating ice shelves driven by a warming ocean. Here, we use from nine CMIP5 models future projections, ranging from strong mitigation efforts to business-as-usual, to run an ensemble of ice-sheet simulations. We test, how the precipitation boundary condition determines Antarctica's sea-level contribution. The spatial and temporal varying climate forcings drive ice-sheet simulations. Hence, our ensemble inherits all spatial and temporal climate patterns, which is in contrast to a spatial mean forcing. Regardless of the applied boundary condition and forcing, some areas will lose ice in the future, such as the glaciers from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet draining into the Amundsen Sea. In general the simulated ice-sheet thickness grows in a broad marginal strip, where incoming storms deliver topographically controlled precipitation. This strip shows the largest ice thickness differences between the applied precipitation boundary conditions too. On average Antarctica's ice mass shrinks for all future scenarios if the precipitation is scaled by the spatial temperature anomalies coming from the CMIP5 models. In this approach, we use the relative precipitation increment per degree warming as invariant scaling constant. In contrast, Antarctica gains mass in our simulations if we apply the simulated precipitation anomalies of the CMIP5 models directly. Here, the scaling factors show a distinct spatial pattern across Antarctica. Furthermore, the diagnosed mean scaling across all considered climate forcings is larger than the values deduced from ice cores. In general, the scaling is higher across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, lower across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and lowest around the Siple Coast. The latter is located on the east side of the Ross Ice Shelf.

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“…These records are key to understanding the evolution of climate teleconnections presently impacting Antarctica's ice sheets and sea ice (e.g., Yuan, 2004;Rignot et al, 2019), such as recently shown by geological observations of oceanic forcing of marine-based ice sheets (e.g. Hillenbrand et al, 2017;Etourneau et al, 2019).…”

Section: Ice Sheet Dynamics Under Warmer-than-present Climates Of Thementioning

confidence: 99%

“…There needs to be an emphasis on obtaining, when possible, high resolution records (i.e., orbital to annual) of cryosphere-ocean-atmosphere interactions leading up to and during past deglaciation episodes. These records are key to understanding how past changes in atmospheric circulation influenced the transport of ocean heat to the ice sheet grounding lines (Hillenbrand et al, 2017;Etourneau et al, 2019). They also are important for helping to define the nonlinear or variable ice margin retreat during climate warming, rather than having to assume a simple switch in the ice sheet models between advanced and retreated states.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%