Ocean Heat Content responses to changing Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Strength: regional and multi-decadal variability

Boland, Emma; Dittus, Andrea J.; Harle, James; Josey, Simon A.; Sinha, Bablu

doi:10.1002/essoar.10511062.3

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Boland et al. (2023) found the strongest cooling response to aerosol forcing occurs in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean (which aligns roughly with Θ < 20°C at the surface; see Figure S1 in Supporting Information for a map of sea surface temperatures in the CMIP6 models). Li et al.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 58%

Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s

Sohail,

Irving,

Zika

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Greenhouse gases and aerosols play a major role in controlling global climate change. Greenhouse gases drive a radiative imbalance which warms the ocean, while aerosols cool the ocean. Since 1980, the effective radiation felt by the planet due to anthropogenic aerosols has leveled off, global ocean cooling due to aerosols has decelerated, and greenhouse gas‐driven ocean warming has accelerated. We explore the deceleration of aerosol‐driven ocean cooling by quantifying a time‐ and spatially varying ocean heat uptake efficiency, defined as the change in the rate of global ocean heat storage per degree of cooling surface temperature. In aerosol‐only simulations, ocean heat uptake efficiency has decreased by 43 ± 14% since 1980. The tropics and sub‐tropics have driven this decrease, while the coldest fraction of the ocean continues to sustain cooling and high ocean heat uptake efficiency. Our results identify a growing trend toward less efficient ocean cooling due to aerosols.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 58%

Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s

Sohail,

Irving,

Zika

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…The processed model data required to reproduce the figures and tables in this manuscript is held at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.19281761.v6 (Boland et al., 2022). The code to reproduce the figures and tables, as well as to produce the intermediate data from the model output, is held at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8020471 (Boland, 2023).…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean Heat Content Responses to Changing Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Strength: Regional and Multi‐Decadal Variability

et al. 2023

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The causes of decadal variations in global warming are poorly understood, however it is widely understood that variations in ocean heat content (OHC) are linked with variations in surface warming. To investigate the forced response of OHC to anthropogenic aerosols (AA), we use an ensemble of historical simulations, which were carried out using a range of anthropogenic aerosol forcing magnitudes in a CMIP6‐era global circulation model. We find that the centennial scale linear trends in historical OHC are significantly sensitive to AA forcing magnitude (−3.0 ± 0.1 × 105 (J m−3 century−1)/(W m−2), R2 = 0.99), but interannual to multi‐decadal variability in global OHC appear largely independent of AA forcing magnitude. Comparison with observations find consistencies in different depth ranges and at different time scales with all but the strongest aerosol forcing magnitude, at least partly due to limited observational accuracy. We find that OHC is sensitive to aerosol forcing magnitude across much of the tropics and sub‐tropics, and stronger negative forcing induces more ocean cooling. The polar regions and North Atlantic show the strongest heat content trends, and also show the strongest dependence on aerosol forcing magnitude. However, the OHC response to increasing aerosol forcing magnitude in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean is either dominated by internal variability, or strongly state dependent, showing different behavior in different time periods. Our results suggest the response to aerosols in these regions is a complex combination of influences from ocean transport, atmospheric forcings, and sea ice.

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Ocean Heat Content responses to changing Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Strength: regional and multi-decadal variability

Abstract: This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary.

Cited by 2 publications

References 43 publications

Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s

Anthropogenic Aerosols Offsetting Ocean Warming Less Efficiently Since the 1980s

Ocean Heat Content Responses to Changing Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Strength: Regional and Multi‐Decadal Variability

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