Ocean Biogeochemical Signatures of the North Pacific Blob

Mogen, Samuel; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Dallmann, Allysa R.; Gregor, Luke; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Bograd, Steven J.; Quirós, Nathalí Cordero; Lorenzo, Emanuele Di; Hazen, Elliott L.; Jacox, Michael G.; Buil, Mercedes Pozo; Yeager, Stephen

doi:10.1029/2021gl096938

Cited by 21 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(68 reference statements)

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“…The “Blob,” a prolonged and extensive marine heatwave that occurred from 2013 to 2015 in the Northeast Pacific, illustrates the potential threat posed by marine compound events on ecosystems. This marine heatwave coincided with anomalously low oxygen, low pH, and large negative anomalies in phytoplankton NPP (Gruber et al, 2021; Le Grix et al, 2021; Mogen et al, 2022; Whitney, 2015; Wyatt et al, 2022), leading to severe impacts on marine life (Cavole et al, 2016), including mortality and reproductive failure of sea birds (Jones et al, 2018; Piatt et al, 2020), mass strandings of sea lions in California and of whales in the western Gulf of Alaska (Cavole et al, 2016), as well as shifts in species distribution toward warm‐water species, with repercussions on fisheries (Cavole et al, 2016; Cheung & Frölicher, 2020). Previous research has shown that marine heatwaves and compound extreme events have become more frequent over the past century (Gruber et al, 2021; Oliver et al, 2018) and that this trend is projected to continue as global warming persists (e.g., Burger et al, 2022; Frölicher et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Le Grix,

Cheung,

Reygondeau

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate‐impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid‐latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Le Grix,

Cheung,

Reygondeau

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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“…Here, we demonstrate the ability to predict short-term variations in the state of marine stressors, but our results also suggest that there may be potential for forecasting extreme events. Marine heatwaves, for example, can have profound impacts on biogeochemistry throughout the water column Mogen et al, 2022). Prior work has demonstrated that dynamical, initialized modelling systems can effectively predict heatwaves , but has not examined the potential co-occuring bio-geochemical effects which often interact with warm temperatures to redistribute species and affect human uses of the ocean.…”

Section: D) E) F ) G) H) I) J) K) L) M) N) O) P) Q) R)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The global ocean is facing growing threats from the accumulation of excess heat and carbon dioxide in the Earth System, leading to ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation (Bopp et al, 2013;Doney et al, 2009;. On top of long-term trends, climate variability and extremes on shorter timescales can rapidly alter temperature and have major effects on regional biogeochemistry (Di Mogen et al, 2022). Since marine organisms and ecosystems are highly sensitive to changes in their environment across a range of timescales, climate variability and trends will likely alter their success and spatial distribution Doney et al, 2009;, which is of great concern for fisheries and aquaculture systems .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Skillful multi-month predictions of ecosystem stressors in the surface and subsurface ocean

Mogen

Lovenduski

Yeager

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long-term trends, short term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need for predictions of marine ecosystems on monthly, seasonal, and multi-month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have investigated forecasts of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along with novel observation-based biogeochemical and physical products to quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts, with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision making.

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“…This persistently cohesive and anomalously warm body of water, first detected in the sub-polar northern Pacific in late 2013, expanded in 2014 to encompass almost the entire west coast of North America, with sea surface temperatures reaching 2.5-3.0 o C above average. The marine heat wave (MHW) persisted from 2013 to 2016 in some coastal areas (Mogen et al, 2022). It has been speculated that the warm temperatures had a detrimental effect on kelp density and productivity, with greater severity in northern California compared to central and southern areas (Rogers-Bennett and Catton, 2019).…”

Section: Current Statementioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the extinct megaherbivore Steller's sea cow (Hydrodamalis gigas) on kelp forest resilience

2022

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Giant kelp forests off the west coast of North America are maintained primarily by sea otter (Enhydra lutris) and sunflower sea star (Pycnopodia helianthoides) predation of sea urchins. Human hunting of sea otters in historical times, together with a marine heat wave and sea star wasting disease epidemic in the past decade, devastated these predators, leading to widespread occurrences of urchin barrens. Since the late Neogene, species of the megaherbivorous sirenian Hydrodamalis ranged throughout North Pacific giant kelp forests. The last species, H. gigas, was driven to extinction by human hunting in the mid-eighteen century. H. gigas was an obligate kelp canopy browser, and its body size implies that it would have had a significant impact on the system. Here, we hypothesize that sea cow browsing may have enhanced forest resilience. We tested this hypothesis with a mathematical model, comparing historical and modern community responses to marine heat waves and sea star wasting disease. Results indicate that forest communities were highly resistant to marine heat waves, yet susceptible to sea star wasting disease, and to disease in combination with warming. Resistance was greatest among systems with both sea cows and sea otters present. The model additionally predicts that historical communities may have exhibited delayed transitions after perturbation and faster recovery times. Sea cow browsing may therefore have enhanced resilience against modern perturbations. We propose that operationalizing these findings by mimicking sea cow herbivory could enhance kelp forest resilience.

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Ocean Biogeochemical Signatures of the North Pacific Blob

Cited by 21 publications

References 49 publications

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Skillful multi-month predictions of ecosystem stressors in the surface and subsurface ocean

Impact of the extinct megaherbivore Steller's sea cow (Hydrodamalis gigas) on kelp forest resilience

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