Observed connections of Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes to Northern Hemisphere surface climate

Ivy, Diane J.; Solomon, Susan; Calvo, Natalia; Thompson, David W. J.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa57a4

Cited by 79 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 42 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Springtime Antarctic ozone depletion has resulted in a stronger and colder polar vortex, which in turn has driven changes in Southern Hemisphere summer weather patterns (Kang et al, ; Thompson & Solomon, ). In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), springtime polar stratospheric ozone extremes display large but localized surface temperature differences in both models (Calvo et al, ) and observations (Ivy et al, ), particularly in Siberia. In contrast to the Southern Hemisphere, whether Arctic stratospheric ozone changes are a harbinger or a cause of subsequent tropospheric climate change has not been robustly established.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been accounted for in this work by the removal of the temperature anomalies correlated with the NINO 3.4 index from the surface temperature; see section , this accounts for the ENSO influenced variability in surface air temperatures, especially in southern Asia (Thirumalai et al, ). For the observations, we use the time period of 1980–2016 to obtain the maximum available observed high and low extreme ozone years (Ivy et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Surface Temperatures Using Stratospheric Ozone Information

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Correlations between springtime stratospheric ozone extremes and subsequent surface temperatures have been previously reported for both models and observations at particular locations in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we quantify for the first time the potential use of ozone information for Northern Hemisphere seasonal forecasts, using observations and a nine‐member chemistry climate model ensemble. The ensemble composite correlations between March total column ozone (TCO) and April surface temperatures display a similar structure to observations, but with slightly lower correlation magnitudes. This is likely due to the larger number of cases smoothing out sampling error in the pattern, which is visible in the difference between correlations calculated from individual ensemble members. Using a linear regression model with March TCO as the predictor, predictions of the following April surface temperatures in regions that show large correlations are possible up to 4 years following the regression model end date in individual ensemble members, and up to 6 years in observations. We create an empirical forecast model to predict the sign of the observed as well as the modeled surface temperature anomalies using March TCO. Through a leave‐three‐years‐out cross‐validation method, we show that March TCO can forecast the sign of the April surface temperature anomalies well in parts of Eurasia that show the lowest model internal variability.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Surface Temperatures Using Stratospheric Ozone Information

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Studies which have prescribed zonally symmetric ozone depletion (e.g., Karpechko et al, ; Smith & Polvani, ) have struggled to show significant surface impacts when imposing ozone depletion of observed magnitude in the Arctic stratosphere. However, studies which use interannual variability in interactive 3‐D ozone fields have seen significantly different patterns in Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea level pressure between composites of the years with lowest ozone and those with highest ozone (e.g., Calvo et al, ; Ivy et al, ). While the focus of this paper is not ozone depletion, we note that from a dynamical perspective, CCMs only differ from prescribed‐ozone GCMs in that their ozone field is always three‐dimensional and interacts with both dynamics and composition.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prescribing Zonally Asymmetric Ozone Climatologies in Climate Models: Performance Compared to a Chemistry‐Climate Model

Rae

Keeble

Hitchcock

et al. 2019

J Adv Model Earth Syst

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Three different methods of specifying ozone in an atmosphere‐only version of the HadGEM3‐A global circulation model are compared to the coupled chemistry configuration of this model. These methods include a specified zonal‐mean ozone climatology, a specified 3‐D ozone climatology, and a calculated‐asymmetry scheme in which a specified zonal‐mean ozone field is adapted online to be consistent with dynamically produced zonal asymmetries. These simulations all use identical boundary conditions and, by construction, have the same climatological zonal‐mean ozone, that of the coupled chemistry configuration of the model. Prescribing ozone, regardless of scheme, results in a simulation which is 3–4 times faster than the coupled chemistry‐climate model (CCM). Prescribing climatological zonal asymmetries leads to a vortex which is the correct intensity but which is systematically displaced over regions with lower prescribed ozone. When zonal asymmetries in ozone are free to evolve interactively with model dynamics, the modeled wintertime stratospheric vortex shape and mean sea level pressure patterns closely resemble that produced by the full CCM in both hemispheres, in terms of statistically significant differences. Further, we separate out the two distinct pathways by which zonal ozone asymmetries influence modeled dynamics. We present this interactive‐ozone zonal‐asymmetry scheme as an inexpensive tool for accurately modeling the impacts of dynamically consistent ozone fields as seen in a CCM which ultimately influence mean sea level pressure and tropospheric circulation (particularly during wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere, when ozone asymmetries are generally largest), without the computational burden of simulating interactive chemistry.

show abstract

“…More recently, Ivy et al . () presented observational evidence for linkages between extreme ASO anomalies in March and Northern Hemisphere precipitation in spring (March–April), suggesting that March ASO is a useful indicator of spring‐averaged (March–April) precipitation in specific regions of the Northern Hemisphere high–middle latitudes. However, it is still unknown whether the effect of ASO on precipitation, also like that of Antarctic stratospheric ozone, can extend from high–middle latitudes to tropics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Smith and Polvani (2014) and Calvo et al (2015) performed numerical experiments and revealed that the precipitation variability over some regions in the high-middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere significantly responses to extreme ASO anomaly events. More recently, Ivy et al (2017) presented observational evidence for linkages between extreme ASO anomalies in March and Northern Hemisphere precipitation in spring (March-April), suggesting that March ASO is a useful indicator of spring-averaged (March-April) precipitation in specific regions of the Northern Hemisphere high-middle latitudes. However, it is still unknown whether the effect of ASO on precipitation, also like that of Antarctic stratospheric ozone, can extend from high-middle latitudes to tropics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall

Xie

Zhang

Sang

et al. 2017

Atmospheric Science Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The tropical precipitation has a wide effect on the tropical economics and social life. Many studies made efforts to improve the tropical precipitation forecast using tropical climate factors. This study, based on observations, found that Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) could exert a significant effect on the tropical precipitation, i.e. there is more (less) rainfall over the eastern Pacific and less (more) precipitation over the western Pacific when the ASO anomalies are lower (larger) than normal. It is because a decrease (increase) in ASO could affect El Niño (La Niña) events and lead to a weakened (enhanced) Walker circulation. Time-slice experiments confirmed that the ASO anomalies can force El Niño-Southern Oscillation-like anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature and subsequent tropical precipitation anomalies. In addition, the ASO variations could also change the occurrence probability of extreme precipitation in the tropics. During the anomalously low (high) ASO events, there are more occurrences of heavier precipitation over the eastern Pacific (western Pacific) and of lighter precipitation over the western Pacific (eastern Pacific). Furthermore, the ASO variations lead tropical rainfall by approximately 21 months, suggesting that the ASO can serve as a potentially effective predictor of tropical rainfall.

show abstract

Observed connections of Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes to Northern Hemisphere surface climate

Cited by 79 publications

References 42 publications

Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Surface Temperatures Using Stratospheric Ozone Information

Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Surface Temperatures Using Stratospheric Ozone Information

Prescribing Zonally Asymmetric Ozone Climatologies in Climate Models: Performance Compared to a Chemistry‐Climate Model

Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About