Observed changes in southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 1901–2011

Guhathakurta, Pulak; Rajeevan, M.; Sikka, D. R.; Tyagi, Ajit

doi:10.1002/joc.4095

Cited by 142 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…The recent studies [ Guhathakurta et al , ; Guhathakurta and Rajeevan , ; Joseph and Simon , ; Turner and Annamalai , ] have suggested the decrease of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during the post 1950s. Figure shows the time series of all‐India monsoon season rainfall during the period of 1901–2010.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

Mohan

Rajeevan

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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The hydroclimatic intensity index (HY‐INT) is a single index that quantitatively combines measures of precipitation intensity and dry spell length, thus providing an integrated response of the hydrological cycle to global warming. The HY‐INT index is a product of the precipitation intensity (PINT, intensity during wet days) and dry spell length (DSL). Using the observed gridded rainfall data sets of 1951–2010 period, the changes in HY‐INT, PINT, and DSL over the Indian monsoon region have been examined in addition to changes in maximum consecutive dry days (MCD). We have also considered 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for examining the changes in these indices during the present‐day and future climate change scenarios. For climate change projections, the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario was considered. The analysis of observational data during the period 1951–2010 suggested an increase in DSL and MCD over most of central India. Further, statistically significant (95% level) increase in HY‐INT is also noted during the period of 1951–2010, which is mainly caused due to significant increase in precipitation intensity. The CMIP5 model projections of future climate also suggest a statistically significant increase in HY‐INT over the Indian region. Out of the 10 models considered, seven models suggest a consistent increase in HY‐INT during the period of 2010–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the projected increase in HY‐INT is mainly due to increase in the precipitation intensity, while dry spell length (DSL) showed little changes in the future climate.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

Mohan

Rajeevan

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Chaba was the strongest October typhoon recorded in the Republic of Korea and caused flooding, damaged several homes, and blocked streets in southeastern cities. , since there is strong interdecadal variability in Indian monsoon precipitation (Guhathakurta et al 2015).…”

Section: (Iii) Notable Events and Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

State of the Climate in 2016

Aaron-Morrison¹,

Ackerman²,

Adams³

et al. 2017

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

150

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“…Climate anomalies are relative to the 1961-90 normal. Monsoon precipitation is defined relative to a 50-year base period, since there is strong interdecadal variability in Indian monsoon precipitation (Guhathakurta et al 2014).…”

Section: (Iii) Notable Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%