Observational analysis and simulations of a severe hailstorm in northeastern Italy

Manzato, Agostino; Riva, Valentino; Tiesi, Alessandro; Miglietta, Mario Marcello

doi:10.1002/qj.3886

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…These findings are consistent with Cui et al (2023) who showed that COSMO tends to produce too many small hailstones and not enough larger ones compared to MESHS radar product. To summarize the results, HAILCAST, whether integrated in WRF or COSMO, is able to reproduce observed hail swaths over the Alpine-Adriatic region as already reported by previous studies (Trefalt et al, 2018;Manzato et al, 2020;Raupach et al, 2021;Malečić et al, 2022;Tiesi et al, 2022;Cui et al, 2023). Further by comparing the simulated and observed maximum hailstone diameters, we find that both models tend to overestimate the maximum hailstone size compared to the Croatian hailpad network.…”

Section: Hailcast Resultssupporting

confidence: 79%

“…Several recent studies employed HAILCAST embedded in high-resolution numerical models, such as WRF or COSMO, to study hailstorms occurring over the United States and Europe. The studies found that the models can reproduce the atmospheric conditions and triggering mechanisms responsible for hailstorm formation, resulting in simulating comparable hailstorms to those observed over the complex terrain of the United States (Adams-Selin & Ziegler, 2016; Adams-Selin et al, 2019), Switzerland (Trefalt et al, 2018;Raupach et al, 2021;Cui et al, 2023), Italy (Manzato et al, 2020;Tiesi et al, 2022), and Croatia (Malečić et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Several studies reported a sensitivity of hail and lightning related variables such as updrafts and graupel mixing ratios on the choice of microphysics (Lagasio et al, 2017b;Trefalt et al, 2018;Manzato et al, 2020;Sokol & Minářová, 2020;Raupach et al, 2021), a combination of microphysics and planetary boundary layer parameterization scheme (Malečić et al, 2022), and large-scale forcing and initialization time (Manzato et al, 2020). Thus, different models with different configurations can produce large variability for different cases which encourages the use of a multi-model and/or multi-physics ensemble to analyze or forecast such events and to investigate the response of such events to further warming of the atmosphere.…”

Section: Differences Between Models and Model Internal Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating Hail and Lightning over the Alpine Adriatic Region - A model Intercomparison Study

Malečić

Cui

Demory³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Hail is a significant convective weather hazard, often causing considerable crop and property damage across the world. Although extremely damaging, hail still remains a challenging phenomenon to model and forecast, given the limited computational resolution and the gaps in understanding the processes involved in hail formation. Here, eight hailstorms occurring over the Alpine-Adriatic region are analyzed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) simulations, with embedded HAILCAST and Lightning Potential Index (LPI) diagnostics at kilometer-scale grid spacing (~2.2 km). In addition, a model intercomparison study is performed to investigate the ability of the different modeling systems in reproducing such convective extremes, and to further assess the uncertainties associated with simulations of such localized phenomena. The results are verified by hailpad observations over Croatia, radar estimates of hail over Switzerland and lightning measurements from the LINET network. The analysis revealed that both HAILCAST and LPI are able to reproduce the areas and intensities affected by hail and lightning. Moreover, the hail and lightning fields produced by both models are similar, although a slight tendency of WRF to produce smaller hail swaths with larger hailstones and higher LPI compared to COSMO is visible. It is found that these differences can be explained by systematic differences in vertical profiles of microphysical properties and updraft strength between the models. Overall, the promising results indicate that both HAILCAST and LPI could be valuable tools for real-time forecasting and climatological assessment of hail and lightning in current and changing climates.

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Section: Hailcast Resultssupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Differences Between Models and Model Internal Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating Hail and Lightning over the Alpine Adriatic Region - A model Intercomparison Study

Malečić

Cui

Demory³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…For each case study reported in Table 1, the survey time of the retrieval of the SAR wind determines the time of the LAPS analysis, which is used as initial condition for the WRF model simulations. The twenty selected case studies cover a wide range of atmospheric scenarios, including episodes characterized by flow over complex orography Dudhia, 2012, 2013;Gómez-Navarro et al, 2015) conducive to episodes of orographic convection, which occasionally occur in this area (e.g., Manzato et al, 2020). The numerical experiments are performed over the geographical domain shown in Figure 1A, using a twodomain one-way-nested configuration, where d01 and d02 are the external and internal domain, respectively.…”

Section: Wrfmentioning

confidence: 99%

Initialization of WRF Model Simulations With Sentinel-1 Wind Speed for Severe Weather Events

et al. 2021

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The model initialization with high-resolution SAR wind data provided by the Sentinel-1 mission and its impact on the meteorological model WRF-ARW simulations is discussed. The activity is performed within the Horizon 2020 CEASELESS project, focusing on one of the target areas, the northern Adriatic Sea (northern-central Mediterranean). The Sentinel-1 SAR wind is ingested into LAPS, a numerical system developed at NOAA, specifically designed for data analysis and nowcasting issues, since it has the advantage of being faster and less computational demanding than advanced data assimilation methods. Here, LAPS analyses are used to perform a smarter initialization of the WRF-ARW model simulations than using simply global model fields. The impact of the Sentinel-1 SAR wind on the model simulations is evaluated for twenty cases, ranging through several atmospheric conditions occurring in different seasons of the years 2014–2018. For each case study, a reference WRF-ARW simulation is forced with GFS analysis and forecasts used as initial and boundary conditions, respectively. Additional model runs are initialized with the LAPS analyses, which include the information of Sentinel-1 SAR wind, METAR data and the SEVIRI/MSG (Eumetsat) brightness temperature. A statistical evaluation of the WRF-ARW simulations is performed versus an independent set of surface records, provided by the Friuli Venezia Giulia regional station network (northeastern Italy), and METAR data. The comparison is performed for 10 m wind, 2 m air and dew point temperature. The results show a positive, albeit modest, impact on the WRF model simulations initialized with the LAPS analyses. The initialization with the Sentinel-1 SAR wind show benefits for all surface variables. Finally, a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone (Medicane), occurred in the Ionian Sea in November 2017, is considered in order to show how the use of Sentinel wind data can contribute to a better analysis and simulation of severe weather episodes in the Mediterranean. The improvement in the simulation of the pressure minimum location is remarkable.

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“…On the other hand, when the incoming marine flow is conditionally unstable, the blocked flow situation persists, resulting in low-level convergence well upstream of the orography (Fig. 3) that may evolve in the development of deep convection ("Upstream" HPEs in Davolio et al, 2016) or even mesoscale convective systems (Davolio et al, 2009;Ricchi et al, 2021) and supercells (Manzato et al, 2015;Miglietta et al, 2016), which produce heavy rainfall and hail over the plain, even close to the coastal areas (Manzato et al, 2020). In this category (e.g., IOP18), characterized by high values of the Froude number, other parameters defined by the vertical profile provide an indication of the possible evolution and severity of the event.…”

Section: North-eastern Italymentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamical forcings in heavy precipitation events over Italy: lessons from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign

Miglietta

Davolio

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The first Special Observation Period (SOP1) of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean eXperiment) was held in Fall 2012 and focused on heavy precipitation events (HPEs) and floods in the northwestern Mediterranean. Nine intensive observation periods (IOPs) involved the three Italian target areas (north-eastern Italy, NEI; Liguria and Tuscany, LT; central Italy, CI), enabling an unprecedented analysis of precipitation systems in these regions. In the present work, we highlight the major findings emerging from the HyMeX campaign and in the subsequent research activity over the three target areas, by means of conceptual models and through the identification of the relevant recursive mesoscale features. For NEI, two categories of events (Upstream and Alpine HPEs) have been identified, which differ mainly in the temporal evolution of the stability of the upstream environment and of the intensity of the impinging flow (i.e., the Froude number). The numerical simulation of convection in the Po Valley was found very sensitive to small changes in the environmental conditions, especially when they are close to the threshold between “flow-over” and “flow-around” regimes. Some mesoscale features (e.g., the presence of a shallow pressure minimum in the eastern Po Valley) were identified as fundamental to adequately simulate the detailed evolution of severe convective episodes. For LT, HyMeX SOP1 focused on orographically-enhanced precipitation over the Apennines and quasi-stationary mesoscale convective systems over the sea or close to the coast. For the latter category of events, associated with the majority of the recent HPEs in the area, local-scale or large-scale convergence lines appear fundamental to trigger and sustain convection. These lines are affected not only by the orography of the region, but also by perturbations induced by Sardinia and Corsica on the environmental flow. Cold pools formed via evaporation of precipitation also played a major role in determining the position of the trigger at later times. The accurate representation of the moisture structure below 2 km is the key to an accurate simulation of the timing and location of precipitation. For CI, a high low-level moisture content and marked low-level convergence over the sea were critical to support deep convection in IOPs affecting the Tyrrhenian coast. Also, an elevated moisture plume from the Tropics was observed to locally reinforce the intensity of the updrafts. For HPEs affecting the Adriatic regions, generally a cut-off low over the Tyrrhenian Sea induces intense Bora over the Adriatic basin. Low-level convergence triggers convection over the sea, while orographic uplift produces stratiform precipitation. The Adriatic Sea plays a critical role mainly through air-sea exchanges, which modify the characteristics of the flow and in turn the effect of the orographic forcing.

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Observational analysis and simulations of a severe hailstorm in northeastern Italy

Cited by 14 publications

References 59 publications

Simulating Hail and Lightning over the Alpine Adriatic Region - A model Intercomparison Study

Simulating Hail and Lightning over the Alpine Adriatic Region - A model Intercomparison Study

Initialization of WRF Model Simulations With Sentinel-1 Wind Speed for Severe Weather Events

Dynamical forcings in heavy precipitation events over Italy: lessons from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign

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