Objectives, Approaches and Techniques

Abstract

From our review of scenario objectives, approaches, and techniques, we suggest that scenario methods can be grouped under one or more of seven broad approaches: deductive, inductive, quantitative, hybrid, integrated, scoping, and engagement. Each has its strengths and weaknesses. We conclude that no single scenario approach can match the scale and complexity of Antarctic geopolitics. For that reason, we recommend that a scenario process employ a judicious blend of several approaches. For this book, we focus on one technique, the standard intuitive logics '2 × 2' matrix, commonly deployed in geopolitical scenarios. We unpack it with a worked example and encounter some difficulties applying it to the field of Antarctic geopolitics. This leads us to propose some modifications, which may be useful for scenarios in other fields. Importantly, 'practical' decisions about scoping and framing of scenarios are shaped, in important ways, by the assumptions and values we hold. Which issues are in? Which are out? How are issues framed? Whose voices are heard, and whose are excluded? What types of data do we admit? How do we handle complexity? What expertise do we need? Decisions about scenario process are not the objective, technical considerations they are often perceived to be.In the preceding chapter, we described a space where standard, probabilistic predictions are doomed to fail due to the convergence of complexity, uncertainty, and time. Nonetheless, we proposed that, within that space, there is opportunity for scenarios to provide evidence-based, broad-brush, but targeted prediction. We