Nutrient mitigation under the impact of climate and land-use changes: A hydro-economic approach to participatory catchment management

Rethinking Decision Support Under Conditions of Irreducible Uncertainty: Co-Designing a Serious Game to Navigate Baltic Sea Nutrient Enrichment

“…the emissions of nitrogen and phosphorus, they have difficulties in incorporating local practices which tend to be multifunctional and entail values which are often difficult to quantify. For instance, a cost-effectiveness analysis of nutrient mitigation measures conducted by Carolus et al (2020) puts forward that many of the measures suggested by local stakeholders to achieve multiple goals such as increased biodiversity, better connectivity for fish migration, or improved flood mitigation were not included in the assessment due to the limitation of the hydrological model in simulating those measures. Critiques of models also point to their poor capacity to deal with uncertainty at many levels (Maier et al 2016).…”

Hidroķīmisko parametru modelēšana hidroloģiski maz pētītos upju sateces baseinos = Simulation of hydrochemical parameters for poorly gauged river catchments

“…Integrējot "SCENAR2020-II" pētījumā prognozētās zemes lietošanas veida izmaiņu ietekme uz noteces kvalitāti Bērzes upē nav viennozīmīga. Zemes lietošanas veidu izmaiņas varētu dot papildus 0.13 kg•ha -1 slāpekļa slodžu samazinājumu, ja vienlaicīgi integrēts arī mēslojuma apjoma samazināšanas pasākums (Carolus et al, 2020). Tikmēr, kopā ar pārējiem pasākumiem, "SCENAR2020-II" prognozētās zemes lietošanas veida izmaiņas varētu dot slodžu pieaugumu notecē no Bērzes upes.…”

“…Representatives from agriculture, water management, nature protection, as well as wastewater management institutions were especially involved in the discussions and planning of water quality improvement measures. Water quality is considered in the context of economic calculations by Danish experts, which have been widely described Carolus et al (2020), comparing the modeling results obtained in rivers in Latvia, Sweden and Germany. The study was supported by the BONUS program (Art 185) MIRACLE project.…”

“…The measures were also assessed in the context of climate change, comparing the effectiveness of the measures in the reference period from 1991 to 2010 with a forward facing period from 2011 to 2030. To represent climate change, we used data from regional climate models WRF-IPSL-CM5A-MR (WRF) and RCA4-CanESM2 (RCA4), which characterize EURO-CORDEX projections from the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble (Carolus et al, 2020). Climate data calculations are based on the RCP8.5 climate development scenario, which includes a relatively rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the future (Riahi et al, 2011).…”

“…Implementing the measures envisaged in all development pathways, it is forecasted that phosphorus loads could decrease by 18.8% (16. By integrating the changes in land use patterns predicted in the SCENAR2020-II study, the impact of runoff quality on the Bērze River is ambiguous. Changes in land use could lead to an additional reduction of 0.13 kg•ha -1 of nitrogen loads, if at the same time a measure to reduce the amount of fertilizer is integrated (Carolus et al, 2020). Meanwhile, together with other measures, the changes in the type of land use projected by SCENAR2020-II could lead to an increase in loads in the runoff from the Bērze River.…”