Numerical Storm Surge Forecasting

Abstract

The present state of the development of an operative storm surge prediction system in Germany is described. It is based on numerical models of the atmosphere and the North Sea. First simulations of the storm surge on Jan. 3, 1976 yield the result, that the observed water levels along the North Sea coasts can be recalculated quite well using a meteorological input derived from observations, Whereas the forecasted water levels, using the predicted geostrophic winds of the atmospheric model, are too low since the pressure gradients are too weak. A series of storm surge recalculations with observed and predicted meteorological data shall answer the question, wether parameter fits, applied to the predicted wind stress, lead to satisfying results, suitable for practical applications.

Storm surges, 1967-1982

“…In addition to the developments in the UK, described above, work on operational storm surge models for the North Sea has been carried out in Denmark (Duun-Christensen 1971), the Netherlands (Timmerman 1979), Belgium (Adam 1979) and Germany (Engel 1979;Soetje & Brockmann 1983). A first comparison of these models has been made by Proctor & Peeck (1983) sea-level data for updaing surge forecasts in the North Sea has received some attention (Flather 1976b;Flather & Proctor 1983) but more research into this problem is needed.…”