Numerical simulation of the climatic consequences of a nuclear war

Александров, В. В.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

doi:10.1016/0041-5553(84)90121-6

Cited by 30 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…After 6 yr, the e-folding time is reduced, but is still longer than that of volcanic aerosols. This long aerosol lifetime is different from results found in previous nuclear winter simulations, which either fixed the vertical extent of the aerosols (Turco et al, 1983) or used older-generation climate models with limited vertical resolution and low model tops (Aleksandrov and Stenchikov, 1983;Covey et al, 1984;Malone et al, 1986), artificially limiting the particle lifetimes. In addition, the subtropical latitude of the smoke injections, in the case investigated here, results in more solar heating than in previous nuclear winter scenarios, which considered smoke from the midlatitude Soviet Union, Europe, and the U.S.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 53%

“…The realization, based on research conducted jointly by Western and Soviet scientists (Crutzen and Birks, 1982;Aleksandrov and Stenchikov, 1983;Turco et al, 1983Robock, 1984;Pittock et al, 1986;Harwell and Hutchinson, 1986;Sagan and Turco, 1990), that the climatic consequences, and indirect effects of the collapse of society, would be so severe that the ensuing nuclear winter would produce famine for billions of people far from the tarCorrespondence to: A. Robock (robock@envsci.rutgers.edu) get zones, may have been an important factor in the end of the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union (Robock, 1989).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts

et al. 2007

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Abstract. We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes are more long-lasting because the older models did not adequately represent the stratospheric plume rise.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 53%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts

et al. 2007

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“…For many simulated exchanges of several thousand megatons of trinitrotoluene (TNT Mt), in which dust and smoke are generated and encircle the earth within 1 to 2 weeks, average light levels could be reduced to a few percent of current and land temperatures could reach −15 to −25 • C [28]. This work was confirmed independently by the Russians Aleksandrov and Stenchikov [29]. These models are now well established in 3-D simulations of smoke [30].…”

Section: Nuclear Winter Scientific Backgroundsupporting

confidence: 64%

A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities

Pearce

Denkenberger

2018

Safety

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This study determines the nuclear pragmatic limit where the direct physical negative consequences of nuclear weapons use are counter to national interests, by assuming all unknowns are conservatively optimistic. The only effect considered is nuclear winter ("nuclear autumn" in the low weapons limits) and the resultant effects on the aggressor nation. First, the ability of low nuclear weapon limits is probed for maintaining deterrence in the worst-case scenario of attacking the most-populous nation. Second, the ability of aggressor nations to feed themselves is assessed without trade and industry resultant from a nuclear attack causing "nuclear autumn" (10% global agricultural shortfall). Third, the best-case wealthy aggressor nation with abundant arable land is analyzed for starvation and economic impacts given 7000, 1000, and 100 nuclear weapons scenarios. The results found that 100 nuclear warheads is adequate for nuclear deterrence in the worst case scenario, while using more than 100 nuclear weapons by any aggressor nation (including the best positioned strategically to handle the unintended consequences) even with optimistic assumptions (including no retaliation) would cause unacceptable damage to their own society. Thus, 100 nuclear warheads is the pragmatic limit and use of government funds to maintain more than 100 nuclear weapons does not appear to be rational.

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“…Recently four studies have appeared which consider the climate impact of a large-scale nuclear war (Turco et al, 1983 ;MacCracken, 1983 ;Aleksandrov and Stenchikov, 1983 ;Covey et al, 1984). These studies followed an earlier suggestion by Crutzen and Birks (1982) that fires resulting from a nuclear exchange could produce large quantities of atmospheric smoke, thus significantly reducing the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth's surface.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Nuclear war: Illustrative effects of atmospheric smoke and dust upon solar radiation

Cess

1985

Climatic Change

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It has recently been suggested that following a nuclear exchange there might be a significant reduction in surface temperature over land areas, due to the impact upon the radiation budget of the surface-atmosphere system of smoke produced by fires and of dust injected into the stratosphere by ground bursts. The present study addresses several aspects of this possible radiative perturbation, such as the unusual nature of the climate response to the perturbation, a description of differences which are inherent within existing model studies, an evaluation of radiative transfer assumptions which have been employed in existing model studies, and illustrative latitudinal and diurnal variability of the smoke-dust impact upon solar radiation.

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Numerical simulation of the climatic consequences of a nuclear war

Cited by 30 publications

References 2 publications

Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts

Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts

A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities

Nuclear war: Illustrative effects of atmospheric smoke and dust upon solar radiation

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