Numerical simulation method for predicting a flood hydrograph due to progressive failure of a landslide dam

Abstract

Reducing the damage due to landslide dam failures requires the prediction of flood hydrographs. Although progressive failure is one of the main failure modes of landslide dams, no prediction method is available. This study develops a method for predicting progressive failure. The proposed method consists of the progressive failure model and overtopping erosion model. The progressive failure model can reproduce the collapse progression from a dam toe to predict the longitudinal dam shape and reservoir water level when the reservoir water overflows. The overtopping erosion model uses these predicted values as the new initial conditions and reproduces the dam erosion processes due to an overtopping flow in order to predict a flood hydrograph after the reservoir water overflows. The progressive failure model includes physical models representing the intermittent collapse of a dam slope, seepage flow in a dam, and surface flow on a dam slope. The intermittent collapse model characterizes the progressive failure model. It considers a stabilization effect whereby collapse deposits support a steep slope. This effect decreases as the collapse deposits are transported downstream. Such a consideration allows the model to express intermittent, not continuous, occurrences of collapses. Field experiments on the progressive failure of a landslide dam were conducted to validate the proposed method. The progressive failure model successfully reproduced the experimental results of the collapse progression from the dam toe. Using the value predicted by the progressive failure model, the overtopping erosion model successfully reproduced the flood hydrograph after the reservoir water started to overflow.

Artificial Intelligence Based Flood and Landslide Disaster Monitoring and Dynamic Numerical Prediction System

“…The effectiveness of this method was verified through on-site experiments of progressive failure of landslide dams. The progressive failure model successfully reproduced the experimental results of the dam toe collapse process [8]. Goudarzi Shidrokh used a fault-tolerant multi-level framework consisting of wireless sensor networks and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to monitor river water levels, and proposed an algorithm that combines group method data processing and particle swarm optimization to predict impending flood disasters in an intelligent collaborative environment.…”

Review on risk assessments of dammed lakes

“…They typically contain three modules, such as a hydrodynamic module (i.e., continuity and momentum conservation equations for clean or muddy water), a sediment transport module (i.e., equilibrium or nonequlibrium sediment transport equations), and a morphological evolution module (i.e., bed erosion equation, breach slope collapse equation). According to the types of sediment transport models selected in the dam breach models (Guan et al, 2015), the detailed physically based dam breach models can be divided into four categories: capacity models (i.e., Faeh, 2007;Swartenbroekx et al, 2010;Juez et al, 2014;Abderrezzak et al, 2016;Dazzi et al, 2019;Takayama et al, 2021), noncapacity models (i.e., Wu and Wang, 2007;Cao et al, 2011b;Wu et al, 2012;Guan et al, 2014;Marsooli and Wu, 2015), two-phase flow models (i.e., Rosatti and Begnudelli, 2013;Razavitoosi et al, 2014;Cristo et al, 2016), and two-layer transport models (i.e., Swartenbroekx et al, 2013;Li et al, 2013;Cantero-Chinchilla et al, 2016).…”

Influences of Spillway Section Morphologies on Landslide Dam Breaching

“…Until recently, numerous model tests on landslide dam breaching have been conducted, such as small-scale flume model tests (Yang et al, 2015;Zhou et al, 2019;Zhu et al, 2021), large-scale field model tests (Li et al, 2021;Takayama et al, 2021;Zhang et al, 2021), centrifugal model tests (Zhao et al, 2019), and in-situ measurements (Liu et al, 2010;Cai et al, 2020). Although different classification techniques existed in the division of the landslide dam breach process, the outburst process as a whole can be divided into three stages: initiation, acceleration, and stabilization.…”