Numerical Risk Analyses of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Probability of Airport Runway Excursion Accidents

Abstract

A continuous growth in air transport industry over the recent decades increases the probability of occurrence of accidents and consequently the need of aviation risk and safety assessments. In order to assess the risks related to aircraft ground operations, all the influencing variables that can affect the safety of maneuvers should be determined. Generally, catastrophic accidents that occur inside an aerodrome are assigned to the runway incursions and excursions. Incursions are dedicated to all events happening inside the runway (e.g. existence of an obstacle or accident of two aircraft) and excursions are considered for an unsuccessful aircraft operation which leads to surpassing the designated thresholds/borders of the runway. Landing and take-off overruns, as the main excursion events, are responsible for the major recorded incidents/accidents over the past 50 years. Many variables can affect the probability of runway-related accidents such as weather conditions, aircraft braking potential, pilot’s level of experience, etc. The scope of this study is to determine weather-wise parameters that amplify the probability of excursion events. In order to quantify the probability of each type of accidents, the effect of each meteorological variables on the aircraft operation is simulated by RSARA/LRSARA© simulators, released by Aircraft Cooperative Research Program (ACRP). In this regard, specific airports with diverse characteristics (i.e.; landlocked airport, extreme annual operations, extreme runway geometries and weather conditions) are selected as case studies in the analyses. Gusts and wind forces, specifically cross-wind, turned out to be the most dominant weather-wise influencing parameters on the occurrence of runway excursions.

The Influence of Visibility on the Opportunity to Perform Flight Operations with Various Categories of the Instrument Landing System

“…The text also provides data from Table 4 , which demonstrates how upgrading ILS categories can significantly reduce the probability of halted landings during specific time periods compared with study [ 52 ]. It emphasizes the critical role of ILS in ensuring smooth airport operations, particularly in adverse weather conditions following the particular results of [ 53 ]. At each analyzed airport, a different category of ILS was installed, which directly impacts the ability to perform landing procedures.…”

Impacts of Flight Operations on the Risk of Runway Excursions

“…Distefano and others [15] employed association rule methods and the Apriori algorithm to determine that the most important variables for all types of offset runway excursions are aircraft type, with events of severity classified as major and hazardous being associated with small aircraft, while events classified as catastrophic are associated with medium to large aircraft. Ketabdari et al [16] used simulators to model the impact of various meteorological variables on aircraft operations, indicating that gusts, wind speed, and particularly crosswinds are the primary weather factors influencing offset runway excursions. Vorobyeva et al [17] integrated data from various sources to enhance understanding of runway surface conditions in order to reduce the risk of offset runway excursions, strengthening flight safety and environmental protection.…”

Assessing the Impact of the Slopes on Runway Drainage Capacity Based on Wheel/Path Surface Adhesion Conditions

“…This means that after initiation of braking by the pilot, tires stop rotating and just slide in the runway surface because of water on the pavement. This fact led considering the worst-case scenario since friction is minimized in the condition of locked wheel (Ketabdari et al, 2020b). Headwind and tailwind forces are also applied on the aircraft during braking procedure.…”