Numerical modelling of the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations under various climate change scenarios and agricultural practices for Prince Edward Island

Vigneault, Harold; Paradis, Daniel; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Lefebvre, René

doi:10.4095/225779

Cited by 1 publication

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“…The groundwater elevation on Prince Edward Island displays a bimodal fluctuation annually, with the highest levels occurring in spring and fall, and the lowest during late summer and in winter months when precipitation is stored in the snowpack (Jiang & Somers, 2009; PSPC, 2018). Several studies have performed hydrologic balances for Prince Edward Island watersheds, resulting in calculated evapotranspiration rates ranging from 382 to 730 mm yr −1 and runoff ranging from 101 to 209 mm yr −1 (Afzaal et al., 2020; De Jong et al., 2008; Paradis et al., 2016; Vigneault et al., 2007).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Saltwater Intrusion Into a Confined Island Aquifer Driven by Erosion, Changing Recharge, Sea‐Level Rise, and Coastal Flooding

Stanic,

LeRoux,

Paldor

et al. 2024

Water Resources Research

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Aquifers on small islands are at risk of salinization due to low elevations and limited adaptive capacity, and present risks will be exacerbated by climate change. Most studies addressing small‐island saltwater intrusion (SWI) have focused on homogeneous sandy islands and one or two hydraulic disturbances. We herein investigate SWI dynamics in a layered, confined island aquifer in response to multiple environmental perturbations related to climate change, with two considered in tandem. Our field and modeling work is based on an island aquifer that provides the drinking water supply for an Indigenous community in Atlantic Canada. Observation well data and electrical resistivity profiles were used to calibrate a numerical model (HydroGeoSphere) of coupled groundwater flow and salt transport. The calibrated model was used to simulate the impacts of climate change including sea‐level rise (SLR), storm surge overtopping, changing aquifer recharge, and erosion. Simulated aquifer conditions were resilient to surges because the confining layer prevented deeper saltwater leaching. However, reduced recharge and erosion resulted in saltwater wedge migration of 170 and 110 m, respectively when considered individually, and up to 295 m (i.e., into the wellfield) when considered together. Despite the confining conditions, SLR resulted in wedge migration up to 55 m as the confining pressures were not sufficient to resist wedge movement. This is the first study to harness an integrated, surface‐subsurface hydrologic model to assess effects of coastal erosion and other hydroclimatic stressors on island aquifers, highlighting that climate change can drive extensive salinization of critical groundwater resources.

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