Numerical modeling of mosquito population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

Abstract

BackgroundThe global incidences of dengue virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. It is predominantly spread by Aedes aegypti in the tropical and sub-tropical countries in the world. Understanding these dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. For this reason, a new model has been proposed to investigate the population dynamics of mosquitoes in a city.MethodsThe present paper discusses the numerical modeling of population dynamics of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in an urban neighborhood of a city using the finite volume method. The model describes how populations spread through the city assisted by the wind. This model allows incorporating external factors (wind and chemical insecticides) and topography data (streets, building blocks, parks, forests and beach). The proposed model has been successfully tested in examples involving two Brazilian cities (City center, Juiz de Fora and Copacabana Beach, Rio de Janeiro).ResultsInvasion phenomena of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have been observed in each of the simulations. It was observed that, inside the blocks, the growth of the population for both winged and aquatic phase causes an infestation of Ae. aegypti in a short time. Within the blocks the mosquito population was concentrated and diffused slowly. In the streets, there was a long-distance spread, which was influenced by wind and diffusion with a low concentration of mosquito population. The model was also tested taking into account chemical insecticides spread in two different configurations. It has been observed that the insecticides have a significant effect on the mosquito population for both winged and aquatic phases when the chemical insecticides spread more uniformly along all the streets in a neighborhood of a city.ConclusionsThe presented methodology can be employed to evaluate and to understand the epidemic risks in a specific region of the city. Moreover the model allows an increase in efficiency of the existing mosquito population control techniques and to theoretically test new methods before involving the human population.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2829-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Environmental Determinants of Aedes albopictus Abundance at a Northern Limit of Its Range in the United States

“…Our analysis does not consider components of microclimate and microhabitat that influence both mosquito biological rates and rates of trapping (e.g., wind velocity, shade, and vegetative detritus). [75][76][77] In addition, mosquito data were integrated from seven local and state health departments, each with distinct histories of establishment, sampling design, implementation strategies, and data collection protocols. We accounted for differences in duration of trapping based on personal communication with vector control officers and estimates of sample collection procedures; however, precise information on trap deployment times were not available.…”

Modeling and simulation of the spatial population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito with an insecticide application

“…Under the discussed hypotheses, integrating System ( 1 )–( 3 ) in and dividing the resulting equations by the area of , yields the following system of ordinary differential equations: Systems similar to ( 11 ) were studied in the literature [ 15 , 19 , 22 , 42 ]. The solution is the traveling wave connecting two equilibria and , where the second one corresponds to the maximum number of mosquitoes.…”

“…However, this complex model considers seven phases of the mosquitoes’ life cycle and results in a significant number (fifteen) of parameters to be determined. In this sense, the current paper follows the work by Yamashita et al [ 22 ], aiming to model the spatial dynamics of the mosquitoes population way, making it possible to model it in a realistic urban scenario. Moreover, we explain how to obtain all used parameters in an attempt to approach mathematical modeling and biological knowledge.…”

Managing disease outbreaks: The importance of vector mobility and spatially heterogeneous control

“…[ 41 ] and Aedes aegypti in Refs. [ 18 ] and [ 42 ], we obtain the values ω = 0.288 day −1 , ω = 0.09 day −1 , and ω = 25.0 day −1 , respectively, assuming a patch size l 2 = 500 m 2 . The diffusion constant can in principle be determined experimentally by releasing a large number of mosquitoes into the system under consideration at a single point, and then measuring their mean squared displacement 〈Δ x 2 〉 over their natural lifetime 1/ μ 0 .…”

“…The inaccessible yards within a neighborhood may be randomly dispersed or highly clustered, potentially due to social influences or other interactions between individual neighbors, and the clustering of control access can influence overall control efficacy [17]. Further, although accessible and inaccessible yards are spatially localized to individual sites or clusters of sites, mosquito motion allows localized heterogeneous levels of vector control to produce effects over larger, potentially neighborhood-wide, spatial scales [17,18].…”