Numerical assessment of multiple vaccinations to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19 via a new epidemiological modeling approach

Wang, Yuzhen; Samreen,; Ullah, Saif; Khan, Ihsan Ullah; AlQahtani, Salman A.; Hassan, Ahmed M.

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2023.106889

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 36 publications

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“…The outcomes of their study indicated that primary and secondary vaccination alone is not adequate for infection reduction, and thus it is essential to provide the booster shot (third time) of the vaccine for a better eradication of the infection. Recently, a similar fractional and fractal-fractional study with an exponential-type kernel analyzing the dynamics of COVID-19 under vaccination was presented in [27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impact of Time-Varying Optimal Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Dynamics and Control of COVID-19: A Computational Epidemic Modeling Approach

Li,

Samreen,

Zada

et al. 2023

Mathematics

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Vaccination strategies remain one of the most effective and feasible preventive measures in combating infectious diseases, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. With the passage of time, continuous long-term lockdowns became impractical, and the effectiveness of contact-tracing procedures significantly declined as the number of cases increased. This paper presents a mathematical assessment of the dynamics and prevention of COVID-19, taking into account the constant and time-varying optimal COVID-19 vaccine with multiple doses. We attempt to develop a mathematical model by incorporating compartments with individuals receiving primary, secondary, and booster shots of the COVID-19 vaccine in a basic epidemic model. Initially, the model is rigorously studied in terms of qualitative analysis. The stability analysis and mathematical results are presented to demonstrate that the model is asymptotically stable both locally and globally at the COVID-19-free equilibrium state. We also investigate the impact of multiple vaccinations on the COVID-19 model’s results, revealing that the infection risk can be reduced by administrating the booster vaccine dose to those individuals who already received their first vaccine doses. The existence of backward bifurcation phenomena is studied. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the most sensitive parameter on the disease incidence. Furthermore, we developed a control model by introducing time-varying controls to suggest the optimal strategy for disease minimization. These controls are isolation, multiple vaccine efficacy, and reduction in the probability that different vaccine doses do not develop antibodies against the original virus. The existence and numerical solution to the COVID-19 control problem are presented. A detailed simulation is illustrated demonstrating the population-level impact of the constant and time-varying optimal controls on disease eradication. Using the novel concept of human awareness and several vaccination doses, the elimination of COVID-19 infections could be significantly enhanced.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impact of Time-Varying Optimal Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Dynamics and Control of COVID-19: A Computational Epidemic Modeling Approach

Li,

Samreen,

Zada

et al. 2023

Mathematics

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Performance analysis of mathematical methods used to forecast the 2022 New York City Mpox outbreak

Kaftan,

Kim,

et al. 2024

Journal of Medical Virology

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In mid‐2022, New York City (NYC) became the epicenter of the US mpox outbreak. We provided real‐time mpox case forecasts to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to aid in outbreak response. Forecasting methodologies evolved as the epidemic progressed. Initially, lacking knowledge of at‐risk population size, we used exponential growth models to forecast cases. Once exponential growth slowed, we used a Susceptible‐Exposed‐Infectious‐Recovered (SEIR) model. Retrospectively, we explored if forecasts could have been improved using an SEIR model in place of our early exponential growth model, with or without knowing the case detection rate. Early forecasts from exponential growth models performed poorly, as 2‐week mean absolute error (MAE) grew from 53 cases/week (July 1–14) to 457 cases/week (July 15–28). However, when exponential growth slowed, providing insight into susceptible population size, an SEIR model was able to accurately predict the remainder of the outbreak (7‐week MAE: 13.4 cases/week). Retrospectively, we found there was not enough known about the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak to parameterize an SEIR model early on. However, if the at‐risk population and case detection rate were known, an SEIR model could have improved accuracy over exponential growth models early in the outbreak.

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Fractional‐order modeling of Chikungunya virus transmission dynamics

Chavada,

Pathak,

Khirsariya

2024

Math Methods in App Sciences

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This article presents two innovative mathematical models for the dynamics of Chikungunya virus contamination by using Caputo fractional derivative. By applying the recently developed numerical technique to find the approximate solutions for the Chikungunya virus system which allowing us for the valuable insights. Through a rigorous analysis of the obtained numerical and graphical solutions, the impact of fractional orders on the infection dynamics is thoroughly examined. Additionally, Banach's fix point theorm is used to investigates the existence, uniqueness, and stability properties of the solutions, providing a deeper understanding of the key parameters that affect the spread and persistence of the infection.

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Numerical assessment of multiple vaccinations to mitigate the transmission of COVID-19 via a new epidemiological modeling approach

Cited by 5 publications

References 36 publications

Assessing the Impact of Time-Varying Optimal Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Dynamics and Control of COVID-19: A Computational Epidemic Modeling Approach

Assessing the Impact of Time-Varying Optimal Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Dynamics and Control of COVID-19: A Computational Epidemic Modeling Approach

Performance analysis of mathematical methods used to forecast the 2022 New York City Mpox outbreak

Fractional‐order modeling of Chikungunya virus transmission dynamics

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