Nowhere to go: Potential distribution shifts of a widespread lizard under two climate change scenarios

Chiu-Valderrama, J.I.; Siurob-Espíndola, B.E.; Zúñiga‐Vega, J. Jaime; Vega‐Pérez, Aníbal H. Díaz de la; Canales-Gordillo, B.; Jaramillo-Alba, José Luis; Akcali, Christopher K.; Cuervo-Robayo, Ángela P.; Pérez-Mendoza, Hibraim Adán

doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101735

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…In this way, as anticipated, most species will experience contractions in their potential distributions in the future in both climate change scenarios. Additionally, both models have shown a similar pattern in other reptiles (González-Fernández et al 2018;Lara-Reséndiz et al 2021;Chiu-Valderrama et al 2022;Vaissi 2022). Although it was unclear which species distribution would suffer the greatest contraction in the future, as C. biserialis, C. lineata, and C. nasus inhabit relicts of the boreal forests and grasslands, they face population reductions in the future in a context of climate change (Xu et al 2020;Kuo et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in central Mexico.

Sunny

Manjarrez

Caballero‐Viñas

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Anthropogenic changes, such as land use and climate change, are the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for reptiles, the second most endangered vertebrate class worldwide. Species distribution modelling was applied to assess how expected scenarios of future climate and land cover change might influence the geographic distribution and habitat connectivity of three Conopsisearthsnakes endemic to Mexico: Conopsis biserialis (Taylor and Smith, 1942),Conopsis lineata (Kennicott, 1859), and Conopsis nasus (Günther, 1858). In order to do this, two climate models were used, CNRM-CM5 (CN) and MPI-ESM-LR (MP), with the Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 85 and the Maxent modelling method in ENMeval. The most important environmental variables affecting the distribution of the target species, as well as the environmental niche overlap between them, were also determined. C. biserialis, C. lineata, and C. nasus were found to be restricted by maximum and minimum temperatures as they are adapted to high elevations and temperate semi-cold climates; therefore, climate was a main determining factor for species distribution. As expected, all Conopsis species were predicted to face a reduction in their potential distribution with C. lineata possibly losing approximately 48.5% and C. biserialislosing 28.7%. However, the models were inconsistent in determining which species would suffer the biggest reduction in distribution in the future. Likewise, a reduction in connectivity was found for the three species of Conopsis, while the Sierra de las Cruces and Corredor Biológico Chichinautzin were determined as very important areas in terms of connectivity. Unfortunately, great losses of Abies and Pinus forests occurred in these areas between 2011 and 2014, along with an increase in the agricultural activity that compromises the populations of these species when intensively managed. Most of the potential distribution of these species are found in close proximity to agriculture and outside of protected areas, which is why it is extremely important to create protected areas for reptile species that live in these parts of central Mexico.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in central Mexico.

Sunny

Manjarrez

Caballero‐Viñas

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Specifically for S. grammicus, it has been detected in future climate change scenarios based on average annual temperature projections that changes in temperature will negatively affect its survival and population growth; and that its potential optimal habitat distribution will be drastically reduced. Notably, the cold and high mountain regions of central Mexico and the TMVB would be the most stable for S. grammicus (Chiu-Valderrama et al, 2022). Sinervo et al (2010) mentioned that if the increase in temperature continues, 56% of viviparous lizards in Mexico will become extinct by 2050, mainly due to desiccation stress, a key cause in the decreased probability of persistence of populations (Walker et al, 2015).…”

Section: Con Clus Ionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental and anthropogenic factors mediating the functional connectivity of the mesquite lizard along the eastern Trans‐Mexican Volcanic Belt

Romero‐Báez,

Murphy,

Díaz de la Vega‐Pérez

et al. 2024

Molecular Ecology

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Functional connectivity, the extent to which a landscape facilitates or impedes the dispersal of individuals across the landscape, is a key factor for the survival of species. Anthropogenic activities, such as urbanization, agriculture and roads, negatively impact functional connectivity of most species, particularly low‐vagility species like lizards. Here, we examine how a landscape modified by anthropogenic activities affects the functional connectivity, at both broad and fine scales, of a widely distributed generalist lizard Sceloporus grammicus in the eastern Trans‐Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico. We estimated for the first time the species' genetic structure, gene flow and functional connectivity in agricultural and forest zones using genomic data, a comprehensive landscape characterization and novel methods including gravity models. Our results showed not only marked genetic differentiation across the study region but also that functional connectivity is maintained for tens of kilometres despite S. grammicus low vagility. Specifically, we found that substrate and air temperature facilitated connectivity over broad and fine scales, respectively, while agricultural cover, relative humidity and slope were important for connectivity and gene flow. Contrastingly, forest cover and roads favoured (broad‐scale) and limited (fine‐scale) connectivity, likely associated with movement facilitated by small forest patches and with thermoregulation. Altogether, these results support that S. grammicus alternates its thermoregulatory behaviour depending on the distance travelled and the habitat environmental conditions, and that it can disperse through relatively modified landscapes, mainly using agricultural zones. The information obtained is crucial to understanding the response of lizards to current anthropogenic pressures and their potential to adapt.

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“…They explicitly incorporate biological processes through empirically derived relationships between species' eco-physiological information and environmental conditions (Tourinho and Vale, 2023), such that they may exhibit a greater potential for transferability than correlative SDMs across time and space (Yates et al, 2018). Furthermore, since mechanistic SDMs rely on intrinsic mechanisms instead of occurrences, they do not suffer from the sampling bias limitations of correlative SDMs (Chiu-Valderrama et al, 2022). Despite these advantages, mechanistic SDMs are still rarely used for SDMs due to the need for detailed knowledge of species-specific physiological data and other biological processes, modeling expertise, and a more significant investment of time and effort (Kearney and Porter, 2009;Dormann et al, 2012;Urban et al, 2016;Chiu-Valderrama et al, 2022).…”

Section: Types Of Species Distribution Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, since mechanistic SDMs rely on intrinsic mechanisms instead of occurrences, they do not suffer from the sampling bias limitations of correlative SDMs (Chiu-Valderrama et al, 2022). Despite these advantages, mechanistic SDMs are still rarely used for SDMs due to the need for detailed knowledge of species-specific physiological data and other biological processes, modeling expertise, and a more significant investment of time and effort (Kearney and Porter, 2009;Dormann et al, 2012;Urban et al, 2016;Chiu-Valderrama et al, 2022).…”

Section: Types Of Species Distribution Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tourinho and Vale (2023) summarized the goals of hybrid approaches as: (1) using the prediction from mechanistic model as input in correlative model; (2) using the prediction from correlative model as input in mechanistic model; (3) considering only suitable regions predicted by correlative model for mechanistic model; (4) using the unsuitable regions predicted by mechanistic model as absence data for correlative model, and (5) considering only the overlapping regions predicted by two types of models. Hybrid models can compensate for some of the limitations of both approaches (Chiu-Valderrama et al, 2022), but there is an ongoing debate over whether it is appropriate to integrate the two. Some claim that due to differences in conceptual foundations and scientific goals, combining them may lead to misinterpretation (Coelho et al, 2019;Tourinho and Vale, 2023).…”

Section: Types Of Species Distribution Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Species distribution models of a predator-prey system under climate change

Griswold

Newman

2023

Preprint

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Mechanistic and correlative models are two types of species distribution models (SDMs). They each have distinct foci, conceptual foundations, and levels of dependency on data availability, leading to potentially different estimates of species’ ecological niches and distributions. Mechanistic SDMs integrate detailed biological processes, making it possible to account for species’ biotic interactions. Despite their assumed importance, interactions in species distribution modeling remain uncommon. In this study, we applied an ensemble model of multiple correlative SDMs, a mechanistic SDM of the focal species (prey) alone, and a mechanistic SDM of the predator-prey interactions, to compare the predictions of correlative and mechanistic approaches and assess their relative strengths and limitations. We predict there are considerable and subtle differences in various predictions generated by the correlative and mechanistic approaches for each aphid species, which call for prior knowledge concerning species’ presence data or life histories. Our mechanistic SDMs allowed for the assessment of the relative significance of abiotic and biotic factors, along with their interactions, in determining species’ habitat suitability. Additionally, we predict aphid habitat suitability decreases across continents due to the effect of predation. However, this decrease may be offset or enhanced by the interaction effect between predation and climate change in different regions. This suggests the necessity of accounting for biotic interactions and the interplay between abiotic and biotic factors in mechanistic approaches. Our research highlights the impact of model philosophies in SDM studies and addresses the importance of selecting an appropriate modeling approach in line with the study’s objectives. Furthermore, our study suggests that mechanistic SDMs could serve as a valuable addition for assessing the robustness of correlative SDM predictions.

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Nowhere to go: Potential distribution shifts of a widespread lizard under two climate change scenarios

Cited by 9 publications

References 47 publications

Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in central Mexico.

Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in central Mexico.

Environmental and anthropogenic factors mediating the functional connectivity of the mesquite lizard along the eastern Trans‐Mexican Volcanic Belt

Species distribution models of a predator-prey system under climate change

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