Nowcasting unemployment rate and new car sales in south-western Europe with Google Trends

Barreira, Nuno; Godinho, Pedro; Melo, Paulo

doi:10.1007/s11066-013-9082-8

Cited by 39 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…This would also solve the drawback that even month-end data, which correspond to the reporting frequency, are not immediately available on the first day of the following month, but only with a lag. Of course we do not have this exact data, but we can try to approximate how many people prepare facing unemployment with the help of Google search volume data (see Choi and Varian, 2012;Barreira et al, 2013).…”

Section: Google Search Volumementioning

confidence: 99%

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A Cross-Country Analysis of Unemployment and Bonds with Long-Memory Relations

Dimpfl

Langen

2015

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract: We analyze the relationship between unemployment rate changes and government bond yields during and after the most recent financial crisis across nine industrialized countries. The study is conducted on a weekly basis and we therefore nowcast unemployment data, which are only available once a month, on a weekly frequency using Google search query data. In order to account for the time series' long-memory components during the first-stage nowcasting and the secondstage modeling, we draw on Corsi's (2009) heterogeneous autoregressive time series model. In particular, we adapt this idea to a setting of mixed-frequency nowcasting. Our results indicate that Google searches greatly increase the nowcasting accuracy of unemployment rate changes. The impact of an idiosyncratic rise in unemployment on bond yields turns out to be positive for European countries while it is negative for the United States and Australia. The speed of the response also varies. Not unexpectedly, bond yields do not have an impact on unemployment. Our findings have interesting implications for the way shocks are absorbed in economic systems that differ, in particular, with respect to the central bank's core tasks. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may

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Section: Google Search Volumementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to nowcast unemployment rates in France, Germany, Italy and Portugal, Barreira et al (2013) draw on Google search query data. Google data have recently gained particular attention as they allow to forecast a broad range of (economic) data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Cross-Country Analysis of Unemployment and Bonds with Long-Memory Relations

Dimpfl

Langen

2015

SSRN Journal

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“…Labor market in the UK lacked flexibility even in the period before the Brexit announcement and it was one of the causes of Brexit. It is important to empirically assess the first effects of political instabilities related to Brexit on the labor market [5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Does Google Trends Tell Us about the Impact of Brexit on the Unemployment Rate in the UK?

2020

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Considering the debate related to the potential effects of Brexit on the UK economy, the aim of this paper is to assess the impact of Brexit on the monthly unemployment rate since the vote for the UK leave from the European Union. This is one of the most important indicators of sustainable development for the country. The novelty of this research is given by the use of microdata to reflect the political instability brought by Brexit, with Google Trends being the tool for collecting the data. Moreover, the data for the four countries that compose the UK are considered (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales) in a panel data and multilevel framework. The results are consistent with the analysis of important macroeconomic indicators and indicate that Brexit concerns decreased the unemployment rate in the period June 2016–March 2019, with few arguments being provided for this. The state policies should encourage the investment in order to support the future economic growth and sustainable development of the UK.

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“…For example, Google query searches have been successfully exploited to predict consumer sales ( [16,36] or [2] and [32]), unemployment [3,17,25,44,45], stock market evolution ( [13,29], or still [42]), and even spread in influenza [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second it is freely accessible and consequently frequently used. 3 Third, SocialMention allows quite flexible queries in terms of date, location, and language to fit to our specific study of Belgian telecom brands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Google searches and twitter mood: nowcasting telecom sales performance

Bughin¹

2015

Netnomics

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The web currently carries vast amounts of information as to what consumers search for, comment on, and purchase in the real economy. This paper leverages a mash-up of online Google search queries and of social media comments (from Twitter, Facebook and other blogs) to "nowcast" the product sales evolution of the major telecom companies in Belgium. A few findings stand out. With an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) model of sales dynamics, a co-integration relationship prevails between social media valence (respectively, between search query) and telecom operators' sales for both internet and digital television access provision (respectively, for fixed telephony provision). Elasticity estimates on sales are relatively larger for valence than for search queries. The ECM model with nowcasting variables improves telecom sales forecasts by about 25 % versus a naïve autoregressive sales model.

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Nowcasting unemployment rate and new car sales in south-western Europe with Google Trends

Cited by 39 publications

References 9 publications

A Cross-Country Analysis of Unemployment and Bonds with Long-Memory Relations

A Cross-Country Analysis of Unemployment and Bonds with Long-Memory Relations

What Does Google Trends Tell Us about the Impact of Brexit on the Unemployment Rate in the UK?

Google searches and twitter mood: nowcasting telecom sales performance

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