Nowcasting Earthquakes: A Comparison of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma and at the Geysers, California

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Hawkins, Angela; Turcotte, Donald L.

doi:10.1007/s00024-017-1678-8

Cited by 72 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…We then argue that nowcasting can be used to forecast the risk of occurrence of larger induced earthquakes, say M λ ≥ 6.0. Our results update nowcasting results given by Luginbuhl et al [15]. 45.…”

Section: Induced Seismicity In Oklahomasupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Another example of time-dependent seismicity is induced seismicity. Luginbuhl et al [15] have applied nowcasting to induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and at The Geysers, California. In Oklahoma, the high-pressure injection of large volumes of waste water from the production of hydrocarbons caused a large increase in seismicity from 2013 to 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2016, Oklahoma regulators ordered a reduction in injection volume. Luginbuhl et al [15] used nowcasting to monitor the success of the reduction of injection volume in reducing rates of seismicity. In §3 of this paper, we will give a brief update of these results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity

Luginbuhl

Rundle

Turcotte

2018

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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A standard approach to quantifying the seismic hazard is the relative intensity (RI) method. It is assumed that the rate of seismicity is constant in time and the rate of occurrence of small earthquakes is extrapolated to large earthquakes using Gutenberg–Richter scaling. We introduce nowcasting to extend RI forecasting to time-dependent seismicity, for example, during an aftershock sequence. Nowcasting uses ‘natural time’; in seismicity natural time is the event count of small earthquakes. The event count for small earthquakes is extrapolated to larger earthquakes using Gutenberg–Richter scaling. We first review the concepts of natural time and nowcasting and then illustrate seismic nowcasting with three examples. We first consider the aftershock sequence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake on the San Andreas fault in California. Some earthquakes have higher rates of aftershock activity than other earthquakes of the same magnitude. Our approach allows the determination of the rate in real time during the aftershock sequence. We also consider two examples of induced earthquakes. Large injections of waste water from petroleum extraction have generated high rates of induced seismicity in Oklahoma. The extraction of natural gas from the Groningen gas field in The Netherlands has also generated very damaging earthquakes. In order to reduce the seismic activity, rates of injection and withdrawal have been reduced in these two cases. We show how nowcasting can be used to assess the success of these efforts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Statistical physics of fracture and earthquakes’.

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Section: Induced Seismicity In Oklahomasupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity

Luginbuhl

Rundle

Turcotte

2018

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…Moreover, the analysis in natural time of the seismicity subsequent to the SES activity in the area revealed [2] that critical conditions were obeyed early in the morning of 18 October 2018, i.e., almost a week before the strong earthquake occurrence, in agreement with earlier findings [4]. The application [2] of the recent method of nowcasting earthquakes [9][10][11][12][13], which is based on natural time, has revealed that an earthquake potential score of around 80% was observed just before the occurrence of this M w 6.8 earthquake. Here, we focus on the recording [14] of additional SES activities after the occurrence of the latter earthquake in the beginning of January 2019 (see below) that preceded the following two earthquakes in Greece during 2019: First, a M w 5.4 earthquake [15] close to Preveza city in Western Greece on 5 February 2019 and a M w 5.3 earthquake [16] on 30 March 2019 a few tens of km East of Patras SES measuring station (labeled PAT in Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Natural Time Analysis: Results Related to Two Earthquakes in Greece during 2019

Sarlis

Skordas

Varotsos

2019

The 2nd International Electronic Conference on Geosciences

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The following two earthquakes occurred in Greece during 2019: First, a Mw5.4 earthquake close to Preveza city in Western Greece on 5 February and a Mw5.3 earthquake 50 km East of Patras on 30 March. Here, we present the natural time analysis of the Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activities that have been recorded before these two earthquakes. In addition, we explain how the occurrence times of these two earthquakes can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity subsequent to the SES activities.

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“…One of the main applications of NTA, however, is the study of the physics of EQs (see, e.g., [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]). In addition, natural time is considered as the basis of the "nowcasting earthquakes" methodology that has been introduced recently [38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46]. Furthermore, NTA has provided [26] a quantity, i.e., the variance of natural time, labeled κ 1 , which may serve as an order parameter for EQs cf.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis

2020

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Natural time analysis has led to the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity when considering earthquakes as critical phenomena. The study of the fluctuations of this order parameter has shown that its variability exhibits minima before strong earthquakes. In this paper, we evaluate the statistical significance of such minima by using the recent method of event coincidence analysis. Our study includes the variability minima identified before major earthquakes in Japan and Eastern Mediterranean as well as in global seismicity.

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Nowcasting Earthquakes: A Comparison of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma and at the Geysers, California

Cited by 72 publications

References 20 publications

Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity

Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity

Natural Time Analysis: Results Related to Two Earthquakes in Greece during 2019

On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis

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