Nowcasting and Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 and Healthcare Demand in Turkey, a Modeling Study

Abstract

Background: This study aims to estimate the total number of infected people, evaluate the effects of NPIs on the healthcare system, and predict the expected number of cases, deaths, hospitalizations due to COVID-19 in Turkey.Methods: This study was carried out according to three dimensions. In the first, the actual number of infected people was estimated. In the second, the expected total numbers of infected people, deaths, hospitalizations have been predicted in the case of no intervention. In the third, the distribution of the expected number of infected people and deaths, and ICU and non-ICU bed needs over time has been predicted via a SEIR-based simulator (TURKSAS) in four scenarios.Results: According to the number of deaths, the estimated number of infected people in Turkey on March 21 was 123,030. In the case of no intervention the expected number of infected people is 72,091,595 and deaths is 445,956, the attack rate is 88.1%, and the mortality ratio is 0.54%. The ICU bed capacity in Turkey is expected to be exceeded by 4.4-fold and non-ICU bed capacity by 3.21-fold. In the second and third scenarios compliance with NPIs makes a difference of 94,303 expected deaths. In both scenarios, the predicted peak value of occupied ICU and non-ICU beds remains below Turkey's capacity.Discussion: Predictions show that around 16 million people can be prevented from being infected and 94,000 deaths can be prevented by full compliance with the measures taken. Modeling epidemics and establishing decision support systems is an important requirement.

Nowcasting and Forecasting the 2022 U.S. Mpox Outbreak: Support for Public Health Decision Making and Lessons Learned

“…Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022a). Unlike COVID-19, mpox is a disease known to be endemic in West and Central Africa for decades; it is caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV), a zoonotic orthopoxvirus (Beer and Rao, 2019). Classical symptoms involve fever, headache, muscle aches, fatigue, lymphadenopathy, and rash(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022e).…”

COVID-19 infection among dentists in Iraqi Kurdistan Region

“…The transmission of the virus depends mainly on airborne dissemination and the vulnerability of dental practitioners [2,10,11]. It was shown that healthcare workers, especially dentists, should be considered in high-risk groups worldwide [12]. However, little is known about the epidemiology of COVID-19 among dentists in developing countries such as the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.…”

Estimating underdiagnosis of COVID-19 with nowcasting and machine learning

“…Many countries are using a combination of containment and mitigation activities to stem the progression of SARS-CoV-2 and thus, manage the demand for hospital beds 14 . Nonpharmacological measures have been shown to be effective in controlling the transmission of COVID-19 [15][16][17][18][19] . They can reduce the impact on the healthcare system, giving managers time to properly organize the system.…”

“…Nowcasting approaches try to estimate the number of a given event in the present 13,15,22 . This strategy has been used to improve surveillance of infectious diseases like AIDS 23,24 , cholera 25 , influenza infections 13,26 , and recently, COVID-19 3,8,17,20,22,27 .…”

“…In these countries, the maintenance of long quarantine periods is even more challenging due to a deficient social protection system, the economic vulnerability of the population, and the large portion of people acting as informal workers. No single set of interventions is appropriate to all contexts owing to the combination of these factors with the climatic, demographic, and organizational issues of each country 15 . Thus, monitoring in near real-time should be a key part of the strategy to couple with SARS-CoV2 infections.…”