2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.01.20087783
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Now casting and Forecasting of COVID-19 outbreak in the National Capital Region of Delhi

Abstract: Objectives:The study aimed to estimate the disease burden due to COVID-19 in the scenarios of unchecked spread and with various public health interventions in New Delhi.Methods: We adopted Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to estimate the course of COVID-19 outbreak in Delhi population and effect of public health intervention on the pandemic. We first estimated the basic reproductive rate (R 0 ) based on the evidence from Wuhan, then ran the model considering no intervention implemented… Show more

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“…We observed: (a) clear reduction in average concentration of NO 2 for the period of 16-Mar-2020 till 31-Mar-2020 in comparison to previous 15 days. Such observation can also be observed with respect to the previous year of 2019, (b) SO 2 concentration saw a sharp drop in average concentration for the period of 16-Mar-2020 till 31-Mar-2020.In comparison to 2019, lockdown period caused a significant drop in SO 2 concentration, (c) the concentration of CO during the period of 1-Apr-2019 till 15-Apr-2019 with respect to the similar period of 1-Apr-2020 till 15-Apr-2020 recorded a significant drop of 10%, (d) the concentration of O 3 in Apr-2020 increased by 7% as compared to that of Apr-2019[29].…”
mentioning
confidence: 88%
“…We observed: (a) clear reduction in average concentration of NO 2 for the period of 16-Mar-2020 till 31-Mar-2020 in comparison to previous 15 days. Such observation can also be observed with respect to the previous year of 2019, (b) SO 2 concentration saw a sharp drop in average concentration for the period of 16-Mar-2020 till 31-Mar-2020.In comparison to 2019, lockdown period caused a significant drop in SO 2 concentration, (c) the concentration of CO during the period of 1-Apr-2019 till 15-Apr-2019 with respect to the similar period of 1-Apr-2020 till 15-Apr-2020 recorded a significant drop of 10%, (d) the concentration of O 3 in Apr-2020 increased by 7% as compared to that of Apr-2019[29].…”
mentioning
confidence: 88%