Novel forecasting approaches using combination of machine learning and statistical models for flood susceptibility mapping

Shafizadeh‐Moghadam, Hossein; Valavi, Roozbeh; Shahabi, Himan; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.03.089

Cited by 253 publications

(132 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…In susceptibility mapping for floods or other natural disasters, it is necessary to define a series of conditioning factors [5,67]. In this study, ten conditioning factors were applied.…”

Section: Flood-conditioning Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The EBF model was run using the following steps [84]. Equations (5) and (6) show how to achieve the results of Bel:…”

Section: Evidential Belief Function (Ebf) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to the high flood-frequency in this region, to prevent loss of life and property damage, areas with a high risk of flooding must be recognized according to flood susceptibility maps [4]. The primary difference between flood susceptibility and flood inundation maps is that flood susceptibility maps (FSM) only show the areas that have a high potential for flooding, while flood inundation maps can identify flood-prone areas based on different flood depths [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flood Spatial Modeling in Northern Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Comparison between Evidential Belief Functions and Its Ensemble with a Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

et al. 2019

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Floods are some of the most dangerous and most frequent natural disasters occurring in the northern region of Iran. Flooding in this area frequently leads to major urban, financial, anthropogenic, and environmental impacts. Therefore, the development of flood susceptibility maps used to identify flood zones in the catchment is necessary for improved flood management and decision making. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of an Evidential Belief Function (EBF) model, both as an individual model and in combination with Logistic Regression (LR) methods, in preparing flood susceptibility maps for the Haraz Catchment in the Mazandaran Province, Iran. The spatial database created consisted of a flood inventory, altitude, slope angle, plan curvature, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Stream Power Index (SPI), distance from river, rainfall, geology, land use, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the region. After obtaining the required information from various sources, 151 of 211 recorded flooding points were used for model training and preparation of the flood susceptibility maps. For validation, the results of the models were compared to the 60 remaining flooding points. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) was calculated to obtain the accuracy of the flood susceptibility maps prepared through success rates (using training data) and prediction rates (using validation data). The AUC results indicated that the EBF, EBF from LR, EBF-LR (enter), and EBF-LR (stepwise) success rates were 94.61%, 67.94%, 86.45%, and 56.31%, respectively, and the prediction rates were 94.55%, 66.41%, 83.19%, and 52.98%, respectively. The results showed that the EBF model had the highest accuracy in predicting flood susceptibility within the catchment, in which 15% of the total areas were located in high and very high susceptibility classes, and 62% were located in low and very low susceptibility classes. These results can be used for the planning and management of areas vulnerable to floods in order to prevent flood-induced damage; the results may also be useful for natural disaster assessment.In recent years, many statistical and probabilistic models have been tested to prepare flood susceptibility maps [9,10]. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used as an effective tool for spatial analysis and data manipulation due to its ability to handle large amounts of spatial data [11]. Specifically, the combination of statistical and probabilistic models with Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS has been widely used by different researchers [1,12]. Additionally, some scientists and researchers have studied natural disasters, specifically floods and FSM, with the help of RS and GIS, using different models such as Decision-Tree (DT) [6,13], Support Vector Machine (SVM) [14,15], Frequency Ratio (FR) [16,17], Evidential Belief Function (EBF) [18][19][20], EBF-AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) [21], Logistic Regression (LR) [22], Shannon's entropy and...

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“…In susceptibility mapping for floods or other natural disasters, it is necessary to define a series of conditioning factors [5,67]. In this study, ten conditioning factors were applied.…”

Section: Flood-conditioning Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The EBF model was run using the following steps [84]. Equations (5) and (6) show how to achieve the results of Bel:…”

Section: Evidential Belief Function (Ebf) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flood Spatial Modeling in Northern Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Comparison between Evidential Belief Functions and Its Ensemble with a Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

et al. 2019

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“…However, their application to sinkhole susceptibility modeling is still very limited. MLAs have a high computational efficiency, despite the fact that the models produced with these statistical approaches may have limited prediction capability and utility related to multiple factors such as the quantity and quality of the data (epistemic uncertainty) and the inherent spatial‐temporal patterns of the phenomenon and controlling factors (aleatory uncertainty) (Bui, Khosravi, et al, ; Bui, Panahi, et al, ; Shafizadeh‐Moghadam, Valavi, Shahabi, Chapi, & Shirzadi, ). Therefore, identifying the algorithm that facilitates development of the best quality susceptibility models is a critical issue to effectively manage risk and land‐degradation problems associated with sinkhole activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sinkhole susceptibility mapping: A comparison between Bayes‐based machine learning algorithms

Taheri¹,

Shahabi

Chapi

et al. 2019

Land Degrad Dev

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Land degradation has been recognized as one of the most adverse environmental impacts during the last century. The occurrence of sinkholes is increasing dramatically in many regions worldwide contributing to land degradation. The rise in the sinkhole frequency is largely due to human‐induced hydrological alterations that favour dissolution and subsidence processes. Mitigating detrimental impacts associated with sinkholes requires understanding different aspects of this phenomenon such as the controlling factors and the spatial distribution patterns. This research illustrates the development and validation of sinkhole susceptibility models in Hamadan Province, Iran, where a large number of sinkholes are occurring under poorly understood circumstances. Several susceptibility models were developed with a training sample of sinkholes, a number of conditioning factors, and four different statistical approaches: naïve Bayes, Bayes net (BN), logistic regression, and Bayesian logistic regression. Ten conditioning factors were initially considered. Factors with negligible contribution to the quality of predictions, according to the information gain ratio technique, were discarded for the development of the final models. The validation of susceptibility models, performed using different statistical indices and receiver operating characteristic curves, revealed that the BN model has the highest prediction capability in the study area. This model provides reliable predictions on the future distribution of sinkholes, which can be used by watershed and land use managers for designing hazard and land‐degradation mitigation plans.

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“…Recently, machine-learning (ML) techniques have become popular for the spatial prediction of natural hazards like wildfires [22], sinkholes [23], groundwater depletion and flooding [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38], droughts [39], earthquakes [40], land subsidence [41], and landslides [42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. ML is a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that uses computer algorithms to analyze and forecast information by learning from training data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gully Head-Cut Distribution Modeling Using Machine Learning Methods—A Case Study of N.W. Iran

Arabameri

Chen

Blaschke

et al. 2019

Water

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To more effectively prevent and manage the scourge of gully erosion in arid and semi-arid regions, we present a novel-ensemble intelligence approach-bagging-based alternating decision-tree classifier (bagging-ADTree)-and use it to model a landscape's susceptibility to gully erosion based on 18 gully-erosion conditioning factors. The model's goodness-of-fit and prediction performance are compared to three other machine learning algorithms (single alternating decision tree, rotational-forest-based alternating decision tree (RF-ADTree), and benchmark logistic regression). To achieve this, a gully-erosion inventory was created for the study area, the Chah Mousi watershed, Iran by combining archival records containing reports of gully erosion, remotely sensed data from Google Earth, and geolocated sites of gully head-cuts gathered in a field survey. A total of 119 gully head-cuts were identified and mapped. To train the models' analysis and prediction capabilities, 83 head-cuts (70% of the total) and the corresponding measures of the conditioning factors were input into each model. The results from the models were validated using the data pertaining to the remaining 36 gully locations (30%). Next, the frequency ratio is used to identify which conditioning-factor classes have the strongest correlation with gully erosion. Using random-forest modeling, the relative importance of each of the conditioning factors was determined. Based on the random-forest results, the top eight factors in this study area are distance-to-road, drainage density, distance-to-stream, LU/LC, annual precipitation, topographic wetness index, NDVI, and elevation. Finally, based on goodness-of-fit and AUROC of the success rate curve (SRC) and prediction rate curve (PRC), the results indicate that the bagging-ADTree ensemble model had the best performance, with SRC (0.964) and PRC (0.978). RF-ADTree (SRC = 0.952 and PRC = 0.971), ADTree (SRC = 0.926 and PRC = 0.965), and LR (SRC = 0.867 and PRC = 0.870) were the subsequent best performers. The results also indicate that bagging and RF, as meta-classifiers, improved the performance of the ADTree model as a base classifier. The bagging-ADTree model's results indicate that 24.28% of the study area is classified as having high and very high susceptibility to gully erosion. The new ensemble model accurately Water 2020, 12, 16 2 of 26 identified the areas that are susceptible to gully erosion based on the past patterns of formation, but it also provides highly accurate predictions of future gully development. The novel ensemble method introduced in this research is recommended for use to evaluate the patterns of gullying in arid and semi-arid environments and can effectively identify the most salient conditioning factors that promote the development and expansion of gullies in erosion-susceptible environments.

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Novel forecasting approaches using combination of machine learning and statistical models for flood susceptibility mapping

Cited by 253 publications

References 46 publications

Flood Spatial Modeling in Northern Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Comparison between Evidential Belief Functions and Its Ensemble with a Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

Flood Spatial Modeling in Northern Iran Using Remote Sensing and GIS: A Comparison between Evidential Belief Functions and Its Ensemble with a Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

Sinkhole susceptibility mapping: A comparison between Bayes‐based machine learning algorithms

Gully Head-Cut Distribution Modeling Using Machine Learning Methods—A Case Study of N.W. Iran

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