Novel Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) epidemic scale estimation: topological network-based infection dynamics model

Tang, Keke; Huang, Yining; Chen, Meilian

doi:10.1101/2020.02.20.20023572

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 6 publications

(5 reference statements)

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“…3,9 The novel coronavirus was introduced as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization, that probably originated from bats. 4 However, its origin has not been confirmed yet. 10,11 COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3 The novel coronavirus was reported in December 2019 with the emergence of several cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome in Wuhan city, China. [4][5][6][7][8] Some of these cases were seen in people who used seafood in Wuhan. 3,9 The novel coronavirus was introduced as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization, that probably originated from bats.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Exponentially Increasing Rate of Patients Infected with COVID-19 in Iran

Moftakhar

Seif

2020

Arch Iran Med

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Background: Coronavirus, the cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (COVID-19), is rapidly spreading around the world. Since the number of corona positive patients is increasing sharply in Iran, this study aimed to forecast the number of newly infected patients in the coming days in Iran. Methods: The data used in this study were obtained from daily reports of the Iranian Ministry of Health and the datasets provided by the Johns Hopkins University including the number of new infected cases from February 19, 2020 to March 21, 2020. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict the number of patients during the next thirty days. Results: The ARIMA model forecasted an exponential increase in the number of newly detected patients. The result of this study also show that if the spreading pattern continues the same as before, the number of daily new cases would be 3574 by April 20. Conclusion: Since this disease is highly contagious, health politicians need to make decisions to prevent its spread; otherwise, even the most advanced and capable health care systems would face problems for treating all infected patients and a substantial number of deaths will become inevitable.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Exponentially Increasing Rate of Patients Infected with COVID-19 in Iran

Moftakhar

Seif

2020

Arch Iran Med

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“…For instance, the public, researchers, and media are asking what the consequences are of having a more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant [3][4][5][6]. During the last month of 2020 a few countries started with the inoculation of vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but it seems that, for many of them, the vaccines will not be available for at least until the first semester of 2020 [7][8][9][10][11][12]. This pandemic has caused more than 100 million confirmed cases and more than 2.2 million deaths [13,14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of a New SARS-CoV-2 Variant on the Population: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

González-Parra

Martínez‐Rodríguez

Micó

2021

MCA

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Several SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged around the world, and the appearance of other variants depends on many factors. These new variants might have different characteristics that can affect the transmissibility and death rate. The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020 and in some countries the vaccines will not soon be widely available. For this article, we studied the impact of a new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 strain on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We studied different scenarios regarding the transmissibility in order to provide a scientific support for public health policies and bring awareness of potential future situations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We constructed a compartmental mathematical model based on differential equations to study these different scenarios. In this way, we are able to understand how a new, more infectious strain of the virus can impact the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. We studied several metrics related to the possible outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of a higher transmissibility of a new SARS-CoV-2 strain on these metrics. We found that, even if the new variant has the same death rate, its high transmissibility can increase the number of infected people, those hospitalized, and deaths. The simulation results show that health institutions need to focus on increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions and the pace of vaccine inoculation since a new variant with higher transmissibility, such as, for example, VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7, may cause more devastating outcomes in the population.

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“…For instance, the public, researchers, and media are asking what the consequences are of having a more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant [70,73,90,34]. During the last month of 2020 a few countries started with the inoculation of vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, but it seems that for many them the vaccines will not be available for at least the first semester of 2020 [35,127,78,117,99,129]. This pandemic has caused more than 100 million confirmed cases and more than 2.2 million deaths [11,59].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant on the population: A mathematical modeling approach

González-Parra

Martínez‐Rodríguez

Micó

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Several SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged around the world and the appearance of other variants depends on many factors. These new variants might have different characteristics that can affect the transmissibility and death rate. The administration of vaccines against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020 and in some countries the vaccines will not soon be widely available. In this article, we study the impact of a new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 strain on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We study different scenarios regarding the transmissibility in order to provide a scientific support for public health policies and bring awareness of potential future situations related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We construct a compartmental mathematical model based on differential equations to study these different scenarios. In this way, we are able to understand how a new, more infectious strain of the virus can impact the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study several metrics related to the possible outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to assess the impact of a higher transmissibility of a new SARS-CoV-2 strain on these metrics. We found that, even if the new variant has the same death rate, its high transmissibility can increase the number of infected people, those hospitalized, and deaths. The simulation results show that health institutions need to focus on increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions and the pace of vaccine inoculation since a new variant with higher transmissibility as, for example, VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7, may cause more devastating outcomes in the population.

show abstract

Novel Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) epidemic scale estimation: topological network-based infection dynamics model

Cited by 12 publications

References 6 publications

The Exponentially Increasing Rate of Patients Infected with COVID-19 in Iran

The Exponentially Increasing Rate of Patients Infected with COVID-19 in Iran

Impact of a New SARS-CoV-2 Variant on the Population: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Impact of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant on the population: A mathematical modeling approach

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