Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing the Risk of Integrating Large RPVs into the Current Air Traffic System

Modeling and Simulation for Assessing the Risk of Near Mid-Air Collisions in Unmanned Aerial Systems

“…collisions per hour of operation [15]. In Germany, the maximum allowable frequency for a mid-air collision is 1 event in 15,000 years [16]. These two examples refer to mid-air collisions and not NMACs, but they also provide an idea of the low occurrence of NMACs that we can expect.…”

“…In [15], the authors recognize that the operation of UASs in the National Airspace System (NAS) should not affect the safety of the general public. Therefore, [15] The authors in [16] use fault tree analysis (FTA) to assess the risk of a mid-air collision between a UAS and a manned aircraft. A specific airspace around Schleswig Air Force Base (AFB), Germany was examined in [16].…”

“…Therefore, [15] The authors in [16] use fault tree analysis (FTA) to assess the risk of a mid-air collision between a UAS and a manned aircraft. A specific airspace around Schleswig Air Force Base (AFB), Germany was examined in [16]. A case study was performed with six FTA assessments which an expert group determined to be reasonable.…”

“…Each of the assessments involved an initial failure mode which would trigger a series of events that would eventually lead to a mid-air collision between a UAS and a manned aircraft [16]. FTA was used in [16] to calculate the maximum allowable frequency for the lower order events, using the maximum allowable frequency of the top event, which is the mid-air collision. The maximum allowable frequency for a mid-air collision used in [16] [18].…”

“…FTA was used in [16] to calculate the maximum allowable frequency for the lower order events, using the maximum allowable frequency of the top event, which is the mid-air collision. The maximum allowable frequency for a mid-air collision used in [16] [18].…”