Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices

Boer, Lukas

doi:10.5089/9798400249242.001

IMF Working Papers

2023

DOI: 10.5089/9798400249242.001

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Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices

Lukas Boer

Abstract: for sharing their code with us. We thank Rachel Brasier and Wenchuan Dong for excellent research assistance. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, and IMF Management.

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Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

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Dyner,

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition

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Scenarios for wind capacity deployment in Colombia by 2050: A perspective from system dynamics modeling

Osorio,

Dyner,

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition

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The Relationship between Climate Action and Poverty Reduction

Lankes,

Macquarie,

Soubeyran

et al. 2023

The World Bank Research Observer

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There is growing awareness that actions by policymakers and international organizations to reduce poverty, and those to mitigate and adapt to climate change, are inextricably linked and interwoven. This paper examines relevant academic and policy literature and evidence on this relationship and explores the potential for a new form of development that simultaneously mitigates climate change, manages its impacts, and improves the wellbeing of people in poverty. First, as a key foundation, it outlines the backdrop in basic moral philosophy, noting that climate action and poverty reduction can be motivated both by a core principle based on the right to development and by the conventional consequentialism that is standard in economics. Second, it reviews assessments of the current and potential future impacts of weakly managed climate change on the wellbeing of those in poverty, paying attention to unequal effects, including by gender. Third, it examines arguments and literature on the economic impacts of climate action and policies and how those affect the wellbeing of people in poverty, highlighting the importance of market failures, technological change, systemic dynamics of transition, and distributional effects of mitigation and adaptation. Finally, the paper surveys the current state of knowledge and understanding of how climate action and poverty reduction can be integrated in policy design, indicating where further research can contribute to a transition that succeeds in both objectives.

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Cyclinaclity Effects of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

Aladwani

2024

SBE

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Understanding the concept of time scales is crucial when modeling economic and financial decisions. Within the time-frequency domain, this study delves into the relationship between fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates across major oil-importing and exporting countries. The investigation employs various cross-wavelet techniques within the continuous wavelet transform framework, with a particular focus on wavelet coherence and phase-difference over the period 2000 to 2020. The results underscore a notable diversity in the connection between the oscillations of oil prices and exchange rates across diverse countries. This relationship is subject to temporal variations and is contingent upon the specific time horizon under consideration. In particular, our analysis reveals strong co-movements between oil prices and exchange rates across various time intervals and frequencies. Importing oil countries like New Zealand, Singapore, Brazil, and Taiwan exhibit particularly pronounced co-movements. Similarly, exporting oil countries such as Kuwait, Mexico, Russia, and Canada also display strong associations between oil prices and exchange rates. These correlations are intricately tied to key macroeconomic events, further highlighting the complex interplay between oil prices and exchange rate movements in different global regions. While a robust connection is evident in numerous countries, the strength of the relationship appears significantly weaker in several others. This variance underscores the nuanced nature of the association between the fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates across the global landscape.

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Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand and Supply-Side Policies on Future Oil Prices

Abstract: for sharing their code with us. We thank Rachel Brasier and Wenchuan Dong for excellent research assistance. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, and IMF Management.

Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

Scenarios for wind capacity deployment in Colombia by 2050: A perspective from system dynamics modeling

Scenarios for wind capacity deployment in Colombia by 2050: A perspective from system dynamics modeling

The Relationship between Climate Action and Poverty Reduction

Cyclinaclity Effects of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices

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