Northwest range shifts and shorter wintering period of an Arctic seabird in response to four decades of changing ocean climate

Abstract

Climate change is altering the marine environment at a global scale, with some of the most dramatic changes occurring in Arctic regions. These changes may affect the distribution and migration patterns of marine species throughout the annual cycle. Species distribution models have provided detailed understanding of the responses of terrestrial species to climate changes, often based on observational data; biologging offers the opportunity to extend those models to migratory marine species that occur in marine environments where direct observation is difficult. We used species distribution modelling and tracking data to model past changes in the non-breeding distribution of thick-billed murres Uria lomvia from a colony in Hudson Bay, Canada, between 1982 and 2019. The predicted distribution of murres shifted during fall and winter. The largest shifts have occurred for fall migration, with range shits of 211 km west and 50 km north per decade, compared with a 29 km shift west per decade in winter. Regions of range expansions had larger declines in sea ice cover, smaller increases in sea surface temperature, and larger increases in air temperature than regions where the range was stable or declining. Murres migrate in and out of Hudson Bay as ice forms each fall and melts each spring. Habitat in Hudson Bay has become available later into the fall and earlier in the spring, such that habitat in Hudson Bay was available for 21 d longer in 2019 than in 1982. Clearly, marine climate is altering the distribution and annual cycle of migratory marine species that occur in areas with seasonal ice cover.

Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: a case study of growth in high latitude seabirds

“…We emphasize this as a key point and limitation for trying to predict kittiwake growth. Finally, it will be important to consider environmental conditions outside the breeding season because migratory conditions might predict unexplained variation or temporal changes in growth (Patterson et al 2021). While previous investigations have highlighted that changes in phenology and body shape are commonly predicted responses to climate change (Parmesan 2006, Dunn and Møller 2019, Ryding et al 2021), altered growth patterns and investment in offspring may also be common responses to climate change.…”

Sympatry of genetically distinct Atlantic Puffins (Fratercula arctica) in the High Arctic

“…Similar range shifts have already been detected in Western Atlantic Arctic populations of Thickbilled Murres U. lomvia ‐ and Razorbills A. torda due to the extended habitable period in the Arctic (Patterson et al . 2021) and the northern shift of fish stocks (Gaston & Woo 2008). Additionally, an increase of boreal seabird species has been recorded in the East Atlantic Arctic (Descamps & Strøm 2021) and the first Atlantic records of Pacific species of Fratercula have also occurred at Thule, probably facilitated by recent Arctic sea‐ice loss (Burnham et al .…”

Opposite, but insufficient, phenological responses to climate in two circumpolar seabirds: Relative roles of phenotypic plasticity and selection

“…In contrast, around Coats Island, sea‐ice forms annually, with spring break‐up typically occurring in May or June. In spring, thick‐billed murres follow the receding ice edge from overwintering areas in the Labrador Sea to arrive on the breeding grounds during the ice break‐up (Gaston et al, 2011; Patterson et al, 2021). The main prey item, Arctic cod Boreogadus saida , is typically consumed when associated with ice, but murres are unable to access this resource when ice coverage is continuous (Gaston et al, 2011).…”

“…To describe pre-breeding distributions for each species, we used published location estimates for kittiwakes breeding on Middleton Island (Whelan et al, 2020) and murres breeding on Coats Island (Patterson et al, 2021). We used multiple years of location estimates for each colony (kittiwakes: 2010-2012; murres: 2018, 2019) and calculated 95% utilisation distributions during the month prior to when the population typically initiates laying (kittiwakes: April; murres: May) using adehabitatHR (Calenge, 2006).…”