Northward Range Expansion of Southern Butterflies According to Climate Change in South Korea

Adhikari, Pradeep; Jeon, Ja-Young; Kim, Hyun Woo; Oh, Hong Shik; Adhikari, Prabhat; Seo, Chang Ho

doi:10.15531/ksccr.2020.11.6.643

Cited by 16 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…These results reinforce the spatially explicit evidence that supports the earlier hypothesis that warming temperatures will expand the suitable habitats of invasive plants northwards [ 47 ]. This is also evidenced by previous observations and projections on the impacts of warmer climatic conditions [ 5 , 24 , 48 , 49 ]. For most of the studied invasive weeds, habitat suitability will expand toward the central and northern regions of South Korea under climate change, and this impact will be particularly visible in Chungcheongnam Province, Chungcheongbuk Province, Gyeongsangbuk Province, Gyeonggi Province, and Seoul City, which are up to 454 km from the southern region (for example, Jeju Province and Jeollanam Province), by 2070.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

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Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Hong

Lee

et al. 2021

Plants

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Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km2, and 990.29 km2, respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

“…Therefore, we used HadGEM3-RA GCM to develop the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the Dismo package in GNU R [ 75 ]. This GCM has been used in various studies for modeling indigenous and invasive plant species in South Korea [ 19 , 24 , 49 , 76 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Hong

Lee

et al. 2021

Plants

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“…The HadGEM3-RA reproduces small-scale features, such as the coastline and intricate topography of the Korean Peninsula, more realistically than other GCMs because of their high resolution [ 45 , 46 ]. Therefore, we used the HadGEM3-RA to prepare the climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the “Dismo Package” in R [ 47 ], similar to previous studies performed in South Korea [ 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the Spatial Invasion Risk of Intentionally Introduced Alien Plant Species (IIAPS) under Environmental Change in South Korea

Adhikari

Lee

Park

et al. 2021

Biology

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Predicting the regions at risk of invasion from IIAPS is an integral horizon-scanning activity that plays a crucial role in preventing, controlling, and eradicating invasive species. Here, we quantify the spatial distribution area and invasion risk of IIAPS using a species distribution model under different levels of environmental change in South Korea. From the model predictions, the current average spatial extent of the 10 IIAPS is 33,948 km2, and the individual spatial extents are estimated to change by −7% to 150% by 2050 and by −9% to 156% by 2070. The spatial invasion risk assessment shows that, currently, moderate-to-high invasion risk is limited to coastal areas and densely populated metropolitan cities (e.g., Seoul, Busan, and Gwangju), but that the area with this level of risk is expected to spread toward the central and northern regions of the country in the future, covering 86.21% of the total area of the country by 2070. These results demonstrate that the risk of invasion by IIAPS is estimated to enlarge across the whole country under future environmental changes. The modeling system provided in this study may contribute to the initial control and strategic management of IIAPS to maintain the dynamic ecosystems of South Korea.

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“…Altitude was also weakly correlated with the six bioclimatic variables and was used in the models as an environmental variable. We used the HadGEM3-RA global circulation model via the R Dismo package to simulate future climate change according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios [ 32 , 33 ]. We estimated the current climate conditions by averaging the climatic data from 1950 to 2000 ( , accessed on 20 July 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Distribution of Amphibians with Different Habitat Characteristics in Response to Climate Change in South Korea

Kim

Adhikari

Chang

et al. 2021

Animals

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Amphibian species are highly vulnerable to climate change with significant species decline and extinction predicted worldwide. However, there are very limited studies on amphibians in South Korea. Here, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on different habitat groups (wetland amphibians, Group 1; migrating amphibians, Group 2; and forest-dwelling amphibians, Group 3) under future climate change and land cover change in South Korea using a maximum entropy modelling approach. Our study revealed that all amphibians would suffer substantial loss of suitable habitats in the future, except Lithobates catesbeianus, Kaloula borealis, and Karsenia koreana. Similarly, species richness for Groups 2 and 3 will decline by 2030, 2050, and 2080. Currently, amphibian species are widely distributed across the country; however, in future, suitable habitats for amphibians would be concentrated along the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range and the southeastern region. Among the three groups, Group 3 amphibians are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, immediate conservation action is needed to protect them. We expect this study could provide crucial baseline information required for the government to design climate change mitigation strategies for indigenous amphibians.

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Northward Range Expansion of Southern Butterflies According to Climate Change in South Korea

Cited by 16 publications

References 45 publications

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Assessment of the Spatial Invasion Risk of Intentionally Introduced Alien Plant Species (IIAPS) under Environmental Change in South Korea

Potential Distribution of Amphibians with Different Habitat Characteristics in Response to Climate Change in South Korea

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