Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates

Berteaux, Dominique; Ricard, Marylène; St‐Laurent, Martin‐Hugues; Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Beauregard, Frieda; Blois, Sylvie de

doi:10.1038/s41598-018-23050-w

Cited by 47 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The magnitude of climate warming is particularly strong at northern latitudes and can put pressure on species to migrate towards more suitable habitats (Chen, Hill, Ohlemüller, Roy, & Thomas, 2011;Périé & de Blois, 2016;Xu et al, 2013). The pressure to shift could result in a long-term reorganization of the continental distribution of species in response to warming, with major consequences for the management of biodiversity and related regulatory frameworks (Berteaux et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

2019

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Climate change is expected to result in a reorganization of the continental distribution of tree species. Recent shifts in distribution patterns have been reported, but it is not always clear how climate change influences these patterns locally, especially in relation to other disturbances. We investigated latitudinal shifts of four ecologically important tree species between 1970 and 2014 within a study area that encompasses their northernmost range limit in northeastern North America (Quebec, Canada; ~761,000 km2). Changes in latitudinal limits were defined in relation to changes in tree saplings’ occurrence patterns within forest plots resampled over two time periods (1970–1977 and 2003–2014). By examining changes in the frequency of occurrences in different portions of the study area along a latitudinal gradient, we were able to identify spatially explicit patterns of loss or gain (sapling recruitment) resulting in the shifts observed. We then estimated the probability of observing a recruitment event in response to changes in climate, disturbance and their interaction, using a multimodel selection approach. Latitudinal limits of all four species shifted northward, but these shifts resulted from different patterns of plot occurrence changes, depending on the species and the location examined. Greater recruitment at northern locations than at southern ones drove shifts for Acer saccharum Marsh., Fagus grandifolia Ehrh. and Acer rubrum L., but less so for Betula alleghaniensis Britt. Climate variables indicating changes in early or late growing season conditions were most often selected in models. Warming tended to reduce recruitment probability in the south but increase it in the north, leading to divergent responses for a given species across the study area. Disturbance effects were generally less important than climate change effects, as was their interaction. Synthesis. Spatially explicit and divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species. The importance of early‐ or late‐season climate variables points towards biological processes being affected at critical stages of the life cycle. Understanding the factors that influence species’ migration capacity in a changing climate is crucial to inform adaptive management and conservation practices.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

2019

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“…Several species of vertebrates and plants are expected to lose suitable climate conditions both inside and outside of protected areas (Araújo et al 2011;Li et al 2015). Conserving future biodiversity in a changing climate is a complex issue, as some protected areas will become less effective in the future, while others will maintain their conservation value (Thomas & Gillingham 2015;Berteaux et al 2018). Therefore, predicting future climate scenarios and their effects on the species ranges is crucial to effective conservation strategies and to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future uncertainties for the distribution and conservation of Paubrasilia echinata under climate change

2019

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Paubrasilia echinata is a widely cultivated endangered tree species with small populations restricted to a narrow strip of habitats along the Brazilian coast. The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of P. echinata have yet to be investigated, and so it remains unknown whether protected areas will ensure the persistence of the species in the future. Here, we estimate the impacts of climate change on the distribution of P. echinata inside and outside of protected areas considering different climate change scenarios and two different sets of presence records: natural distribution and cultivated records. Future scenarios showed a gradual reduction in climatically suitable area both inside and outside of protected areas. Projections indicate a trend for a shift to the highlands of Southeast Brazil, and the loss of several areas throughout the entire distribution of the species. Predicted climatic conditions will be unsuitable for P. echinata inside most protected areas. Information provided here will be relevant in planning future national actions for this species, which is a must to properly protect this long-exploited tree.

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“…We calculated gain, loss and turnover of species and genera based on binary ranges to evaluate future changes on taxa distribution. Taxon gain, loss and turnover (Berteaux et al, ) were estimated as:

\begin{matrix} \begin{matrix} Taxon gain = 100 \times taxon future gain false/ taxon current richness \\ Taxon loss = 100 \times taxon future loss / taxon current richness \end{matrix} \\ Taxon turnover = (taxon future loss + taxon future gain) / (taxon current richness + taxon future gain) \end{matrix}

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Future Changes In Biodiversity Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the current and future biodiversity distribution in the Chilean Mediterranean hotspot. The role of protected areas network in a warmer future

Fuentes‐Castillo

Scherson

Marquet

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Mediterranean Chile is part of the five recognized mediterranean‐type climates in the world and harbours a very rich floral diversity. Climate change has been reported as a significant threat to its biodiversity. We used the flora of Mediterranean Chile to analyse how biodiversity patterns, as measured by phylogenetic diversity, genus and species richness will respond to climate change scenarios and identify the areas that will harbour the greatest evolutionary potential and biodiversity richness. We also evaluated how these spatial patterns are depicted within the current network of protected areas. Location Chilean Mediterranean climate‐type Region, South America. Methods Biodiversity metrics were evaluated for current and future climatic scenarios. Species distribution models were done using Maxent for 1.727 species and 571 genera. Relationships between species/genera gain, loss and turnover were evaluated. For Mediterranean endemic species, loss and gain were also related to life‐form. Finally, variation in species gain, loss and turnover was evaluated in future climate change scenarios within and outside Mediterranean Chile state protected areas. Results We found a general decrease in species richness in the entire Region towards future climate change scenarios. Phylogenetic diversity is predicted to be higher than expected by richness in the north–south of the area and lower than expected by richness in the Andes Mountain. The highest average species and genus loss is predicted to occur outside the protected areas; meanwhile, species and genus gain is higher within them. Main conclusions Future biodiversity patterns are reported here for the first time in the Chilean Mediterranean Region. Our findings enhance the importance of the current protected areas to harbour this future variation, despite their reduced number and size along the region.

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Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates

Cited by 47 publications

References 59 publications

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

Future uncertainties for the distribution and conservation of Paubrasilia echinata under climate change

Modelling the current and future biodiversity distribution in the Chilean Mediterranean hotspot. The role of protected areas network in a warmer future

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