Northern Ireland and Theories of Ethnic Politics

European J Political Res

1985

Self Cite

Rational‐choice models of voter behaviour are concerned with two basic questions: what stimulates citizens to vote, and, if a citizen votes, for whom does he/she vote? In this study, aggregate voter behaviour is modelled as a system of equations with three endogenous variables related to these questions. The parameters of this system are estimated with pooled cross‐sectional, time‐series data on the 1929–69 Northern Irish Parliamentary elections. After appropriate controls are included and within the constraints imposed by these data, evidence is found which supports the applicability of rational‐choice models to these elections. On the related issue of voter decision rules, evidence is found which supports the calculus‐of‐voting approach, an important component of many voting models (e.g., spatial models of candidate/party competition). Finally, the analysis highlights the major aspects of Northern Irish voter behaviour in these elections and can serve as a paradigm for the examination of similar electoral data from other political systems.

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rational Choice Models and Aggregate Voter Behaviour in the 1929–69 Northern Irish Parliamentary Elections*

European J Political Res

1985

Self Cite

“…As noted by Horowitz (1985, p. 56), 'ethnic membership is typically not chosen but given'. Also, in the early 1970s, with regard to ethnic political identity, a long-time Irish-Nationalist politician, in response to this author's question about when he first got involved in politics, stated with some seriousness that, 'In Northern Ireland, you get your politics with your genes' (Dutter, 1980). Thus, for these reasons, it can be argued that ethnic identities are qualitatively different from, and typically take precedence over, identities based on other factors, such as ideology or socio-economic status.…”

Section: Ethnic Identitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, the relationship is more complex, and if one group is relatively large, especially a dominant majority, and policymakers are drawn from it, then it is more likely that this group can control or contain ethnic political activity. For example, from 1921 to 1972 the Protestant-British community composed approximately two-thirds of the population of Northern Ireland, which facilitated control of its government and territory (Dutter, 1980). In the former Soviet Union, ethnic 'Russian' was the largest group, approximately 52% of the total population, roughly three times larger than the second place group, Ukrainians (17%).…”

Section: Nation States and Territorial Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theoretical Perspectives on Ethnic Political Behaviours in the USA

2013

Ethnopolitics

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Traditionally, a 'plural' society has been defined as one that is ethnically diverse and whose ethnic divisions are politically relevant. Arguably, the US falls within the general purview of this definition and its implications, especially with regard to African Americans, Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans and non-Hispanic, European Americans. The principal objectives of this study are: with reference to the literature on comparative and international politics, to modify extant theoretical ideas on ethnically based political behaviours so that their scope includes a broader spectrum of phenomena; and to assess the relevance of extant theory and these modifications to the American case. As far as the second objective is concerned, the principal argument is that the American case is not unique, or even singular, in terms of the relevance of this literature, but rather constitutes a variation on the main conceptual themes of actual and potential political behaviours in ethnically diverse societies.

“…For example, one old-school, Catholic nationalist remarked that, even if there were a united Ireland tomorrow, some Catholics would still want to "put the boot in" vis-à-vis the British government and Northern Irish Protestants (Dutter 1980).…”

Section: Downloaded By [Washburn University] At 15:52 04 November 2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

To Martyr or Not to Martyr: Jihad is the Question, What Policy is the Answer?

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism

Seliktar

2007

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The question of what policies may deter risk-taking actors who willingly commit suicide is not only theoretically challenging, but also of major importance to policymakers. Traditional deterrence theory, which is largely state-oriented, but has also delved into the realm of ordinary criminality, has not been adequately prepared to deal with individual or non-state actors who seem "irrational" because of their high propensity for risk taking and cost bearing. The present article seeks to adapt the notions of deterrence and risk taking developed in the context of interstate relations to such actors, especially terrorist groups whose members engage in martyr-style operations. First, a brief, non-technical review of the essentials of the rational choice approach to deterrence is provided. Second, the article indicates how this approach can be adapted to the deterrence of terrorist actions, especially the crucial role of risk and its correlate, uncertainty, on decision making. Finally, by way of examples, it suggests how these theoretical findings can contribute to a better understanding of the deterrence of terrorists' actions. Perhaps the most important conclusion reached is that no policy is best, although some policies appear to be more efficacious than others. Although this is not an unexpected conclusion, the present analysis puts it on a firmer theoretical foundation and reinforces the argument that the focus of debate, discussion, and policy should be on the prospects for containing or reducing terrorist actions via passive defenses and the denial to terrorists of access to potential targets.While bypassing the question of what might be "terribly wrong," the question of how to deter high cost and risk bearing terrorists, especially those who seek "martyrdom" in the conduct of attacks, is not only theoretically challenging, but also of major importance to policymakers. Although scholars agree that terrorists are rational in the senses that they pursue clear (in their own minds) goals and that their behaviors generally alter in expected ways in response to changes in the costs, risks, and probabilities, which are associated with different actions, traditional deterrence theory, which has been largely state-oriented (i.e., Realist and Cold War based) or focused on ordinary criminality, has been poorly equipped to deal with actors who appear to be irrational because of their high propensity for risk taking and extreme cost acceptance up to and including suicide. The present article seeks to explore the terrorist mindset through the examination of terrorists' goals, motivations, decision processes, risk taking, and the prospects for deterrence of them. The primary concerns revolve around the following questions: Psychologically, what does the emergent terrorist bring to a putative decision situation before any specific actions are contemplated? How might analysts and policymakers better understand, explain, and possibly predict actions and non-actions in these situations? In other words, how might terrorists be eff...