North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.002

Cited by 610 publications

(603 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Similar long-term changes in surface temperatures have been observed across the subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean (Grist et al, 2010) indicating a system level change in the marine environment. The observed increase in surface salinity near Bermuda is also evident across the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre (Zhang et al, 2011), appears related to coordinated changes in freshwater fluxes and modes of climate variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (Hurrell and Deser, 2010).…”

Section: Warming and Salinity Increases In Surface Watersmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Long-term trends (1983Long-term trends ( -2011 of surface hydrography and seawater carbonate chemistry with regression statistics (slope and error, n, r 2 and p-value). This includes surface seawater temperature, salinity, DIC, nDIC, TA, nTA, atmospheric pCO 2 (pCO atm 2 ), and calculated seawater pCO 2 (pCO sea 2 ) and Revelle factor (β) from the BATS ( has increased slightly due to higher annual windspeeds in the 2000s observed near Bermuda (Bates, 2007), perhaps in response to shift in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from positive to neutral/negative over the last 2 decades (Hurrell and Deser, 2010;Bates, 2012). Other studies have also shown that with observations conducted over time periods longer than 2 decades, seawater pCO 2 has increased at approximately the same rate as the atmosphere McKinley et al, 2011) with longer term observations smoothing out shorter term variability.…”

Section: Changes In the Ocean Co 2 Sink?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such studies suggest that analysis of the CO 2 sink or source status using data that has a relatively short duration (<10 years) may not be sufficient to determine whether the North Atlantic Ocean CO 2 sink has decreased over time (e.g., Schuster and Watson, 2007;Schuster et al, 2009;Watson et al, 2009). Such assessments may require a longer term view especially in light of this and other studies (McKinley et al, 2011); and especially when deciphering anthropogenic secular trends from natural variability imparted by such phenomena as the NAO (Joyce et al, 1999;Gruber et al, 2002;Hurrell and Deser, 2010) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (McKinley et al, 2011). For example, in the last couple of years -2011Figs.…”

Section: Changes In the Ocean Co 2 Sink?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Fossil fuel use, cement manufacture and land-use changes are the primary sources of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the atmosphere, with the ocean absorbing approximately 30 % (Sabine et al., 2004). Ocean uptake and chemical equilibration of anthropogenic CO 2 with seawater results in a gradual reduction in seawater pH and saturation states ( ) for calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) minerals in a process termed ocean acidification. Assessing the present and future impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems requires detection of the multi-decadal rate of change across ocean basins and at ocean time-series sites. Here, we show the longest continuous record of ocean CO 2 changes and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre near Bermuda from 1983-2011. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 ) increased in surface seawater by ∼40 µmol kg −1 and ∼50 µatm (∼20 %), respectively. Increasing Revelle factor (β) values imply that the capacity of North Atlantic surface waters to absorb CO 2 has also diminished. As indicators of ocean acidification, seawater pH decreased by ∼0.05 (0.0017 yr −1 ) and values by ∼7-8 %. Such data provide critically needed multi-decadal information for assessing the North Atlantic Ocean CO 2 sink and the pH changes that determine marine ecosystem responses to ocean acidification.

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Section: Warming and Salinity Increases In Surface Watersmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Changes In the Ocean Co 2 Sink?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Changes In the Ocean Co 2 Sink?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean

et al. 2012

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“…While AMOC/THC is considered the dominant oceanic phenomenon influencing Atlantic climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in this region [10]. Strong, positive winter NAO This article is part of the Topical Collection on Decadal Predictability and Prediction conditions generate a fast, tripolar North Atlantic SST response, with maximum heat loss occurring over the Labrador Sea [11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Yeager

Robson

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

143

122

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Purpose of Review Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems. Recent Findings The AMOC-or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations-appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models. Summary Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.

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“…The outcrop and volume of STMW formation is coupled to the NAO, which is the dominant climate mode that influences interannual and multi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean (Hurrell and Deser, 2009;Jenkins, 1982;Hurrell, 1995). During NAO positive phases, stronger atmospheric pressure gradients between the subpolar and subtropical region increase winter storm frequency and shift the Gulf Stream northward (Hurrell, 1995;Hurrell et al, 2001;Marshall et al, 2001) with a lag of about 1 to 2 yr. During NAO negative phases, the Icelandic atmospheric low pressure shifts winter storm tracks southward, winter storms tend to be fewer in number, and the Gulf Stream shifts southward.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-decadal uptake of carbon dioxide into subtropical mode water of the North Atlantic Ocean

Bates

2012

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. Natural climate variability impacts the multidecadal uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (C ant ) into the North Atlantic Ocean subpolar and subtropical gyres. Previous studies have shown that there is significant uptake of CO 2 into subtropical mode water (STMW) of the North Atlantic. STMW forms south of the Gulf Stream in winter and constitutes the dominant upper-ocean water mass in the subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean. Observations at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site near Bermuda show an increase in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of +1.51 ± 0.08 µmol kg −1 yr −1 between 1988 and 2011, but also an increase in ocean acidification indicators such as pH at rates (−0.0022 ± 0.0002 yr −1 ) higher than the surface ocean . It is estimated that the sink of CO 2 into STMW was 0.985 ± 0.018 Pg C (Pg = 10 15 g C) between 1988 and 2011 (70 ± 1.8 % of which is due to uptake of C ant ). The sink of CO 2 into the STMW is 20 % of the CO 2 uptake in the North Atlantic Ocean between 14 • -50 • N (Takahashi et al., 2009). However, the STMW sink of CO 2 was strongly coupled to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with large uptake of CO 2 into STMW during the 1990s during a predominantly NAO positive phase. In contrast, uptake of CO 2 into STMW was much reduced in the 2000s during the NAO neutral/negative phase. Thus, NAO induced variability of the STMW CO 2 sink is important when evaluating multi-decadal changes in North Atlantic Ocean CO 2 sinks.

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North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Cited by 610 publications

References 74 publications

Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean

Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Multi-decadal uptake of carbon dioxide into subtropical mode water of the North Atlantic Ocean

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