Normalized Earthquake Damage and Fatalities in the United States: 1900–2005

Abstract

Damage estimates from 80 U.S. earthquakes since 1900 are "normalized" to 2005 dollars by adjusting for inflation, increases in wealth, and changes in population. Factors accounting for mitigation at 1 and 2% loss reduction per year are also considered. The earthquake damage record is incomplete, perhaps by up to 25% of total events that cause damage, but all of the most damaging events are accounted for. For events with damage estimates, cumulative normalized losses since 1900 total $453 billion, or $235 billion and $143 billion when 1 and 2% mitigation is factored, respectively. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire adjusts to $39-$328 billion depending on assumptions and mitigation factors used, likely the most costly natural disaster in U.S. history in normalized 2005 values. Since 1900, 13 events would have caused $1 billion or more in losses had they occurred in 2005; five events adjust to more than $10 billion in damages. Annual average losses range from $1.3 billion to $5.7 billion with an average across data sets and calculation methods of $2.5 billion, below catastrophe model estimates and estimates of average annual losses from hurricanes. Fatalities are adjusted for population increase and mitigation, with five events causing over 100 fatalities when mitigation is not considered, four ͑three͒ events when 1% ͑2%͒ mitigation is considered. Fatalities in the 1906 San Francisco event adjusts from 3,000 to over 24,000, or 8,900 ͑3,300͒ if 1% ͑2%͒ mitigation is considered. Implications for comparisons of normalized results with catastrophe model output and with normalized damage profiles of other hazards are considered.

A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters

“…Yet, in practice it is often impossible to determine the exact affected areas and time series information on GDP and population in these areas is not available, so scholars typically resort to using data from the country or, if they can, from subcountry administrative units known to be affected (e.g., counties or states). Existing work differs with respect to how wealth per capita is measured: while some use data on the value of capital stocks (e.g., Pielke and Landsea 1998;Brooks and Doswell 2001;Vranes and Pielke 2009;Schmidt, Kemfert and Höppe 2009) or the value of dwellings (Crompton and McAneney 2008), others, often due to the lack of data, simply use GDP per capita (e.g., Raghavan and Rajseh 2003;Pielke et al 2003;Miller et al 2008;Barredo 2009;Nordhaus 2010). If there is more than one disaster in a given country per year, the measure of disaster loss is the annual sum of normalized damages from each disaster as per equation (1).…”

“…Most of existing studies have looked at total economic loss (Pielke and Landsea 1998;Pielke et al 1999Pielke et al , 2003Pielke et al , 2008Brooks and Doswell 2001;Raghavan and Rajseh 2003;Vranes and Pielke 2009;Schmidt, Kemfert and Höppe 2009;Barredo 2009;Nordhaus 2010). Fewer studies have analysed insured losses and all of them are confined to a specific hazard type in one country (Changnon and Changnon 1992;Changnon 2001Changnon , 2009aChangnon , 2009bCrompton and McAeneney 2008).…”

The seismic future of cities

“…Far fewer fatalities occur in similar sized earthquakes in the industrial nations than in the developing nations. The Mw = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake resulted in ≈60 deaths (EberhartPhillips et al 1994;Vranes and Pielke 2009), whereas the Mw = 5.7 earthquake in Agadir, Morocco earthquake in 1960 killed more than 10,000. The Landers Mw = 7.3 earthquake resulted in 1 death whereas the 2004 Kashmir Mw = 7.6 earthquake killed 83,000.…”

“…Vranes and Pielke (2009) normalized the costs of twentieth century earthquakes to 2005-US dollars, and fatality counts to current populations (adjusted for city vulnerabilities). After these adjustments they find that the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906 was the most costly earthquake in US history weighing in at $284 billion, followed by the Northridge earthquake of 1994 at $87 billion, followed by the 1964 Alaska earthquake at $16 billion, and a handful in the range 7-15$ billion (Long Beach 1933, Loma Prieta 1989and San Fernando 1971.…”

Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations Due to Disasters

“…Similarly, Vranes and Pielke (2009) estimate that a severe earthquake in the U.S. can be expected to occur roughly every ten years; based on historical data, losses for such severe events are estimated to be typically in the billions of dollars (adjusted to current dollars). At the extreme, an event comparable to the historic San Francisco earthquake could cause on the order of $100 billion in losses, and up to 24,000 fatalities.…”