Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of the Weihe River Annual Runoff Series Using De-Nonstationarity Method

Shi, Li; Qin, Yi; Song, Xiaoyu; Bai, Shaozhi; Liu, Yixiu

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0002125

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The better the stationarity, the less the uncertainty. In addition, Li et al (2021) and Li & Qin (2022) used this method to conduct the frequency analysis on the annual runoff series of WRB and the Jialu River Basin in northern Shaanxi, China. The design values were also consistent with the measured data, such as the 50%-frequency design annual runoff is close to the average annual runoff, which also proves that the de-nonstationarity method has a certain reliability.…”

Section: Uncertainties Of the De-nonstationarity Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of nonstationary changes in the annual runoff of the Weihe River using the de-nonstationarity method

Liu

Zhou

et al. 2022

Hydrology Research

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The attribution of nonstationary change of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River is a topic of debate. In order to determine main drivers of nonstationary changes of Weihe River runoff, a de-nonstationarity method is used to remove the nonstationary influence of the potential driving factors and transform the nonstationary annual runoff series into a stationary reconstructed series. Then, the primary causes of the nonstationarity are identified by determining which factor results in the most stationary reconstructed series. The climate change factors (annual precipitation and annual average temperature) and the human activity factors (irrigation area and reservoir index) are selected as the reconstructed factors. The attribution results demonstrate that (1) both temperature rises and human activities have a significant impact on the nonstationary change, (2) the temperature is the most significant contributor to the nonstationary change in the annual runoff, which has a nonlinear impact on the first and second moments, (3) the influence of reservoir index is relatively smaller than irrigation area without considering the regulation rule, (4) the stationary precipitation series still exerts some impacts on the second moment of the annual runoff, (5) the temperature and irrigation area have some overlapped influence on annual runoff because the synchronous increase trend in the two series leads to a certain correlation between them, and the temperature rise may also lead to the adjustment of irrigation planning and management.

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Section: Uncertainties Of the De-nonstationarity Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of nonstationary changes in the annual runoff of the Weihe River using the de-nonstationarity method

Liu

Zhou

et al. 2022

Hydrology Research

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“…The traditional hydrological frequency analysis is based on the assumption of independence and stationarity. However, due to the impact of climate change and human activities, the assumption of stationarity has been challenged (Xiong and Guo, 2004;Milly et al, 2008;Salas and Obeysekera, 2014;Milly and Dunne, 2020), and the nonstationary hydrological frequency analysis has received more and more attention from hydrologists (Vogel et al, 2011;Jiang et al, 2017;Wen et al, 2019a;Xiong et al, 2020;Liu et al, 2019;Li et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream hydrological frequency based on a general rainfall-reservoir index

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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When large reservoirs are built and put into operation, the downstream hydrological processes will be altered significantly, and ecology and agricultural irrigation water of the basin will be affected to some extent. The reservoir index (RI) and the sediment trapping efficiency (TE) of reservoirs are defined to quantify the reservoir impacts on the water flow and sediment by considering the static storage capacity. However, the regulating effect of reservoirs on hydrological variables is not only related to static storage capacity, but also to dynamic reservoir operation. Thus, in this paper, a general rainfall-reservoir index (GRRI) is developed by coupling reservoir regulation indicator (RR, including RI and TE) and effective rainfall affecting the dynamic operation of reservoirs, and the GRRI is used as the covariate to carry out the nonstationary frequency analysis of flood (Q) and annual sediment load (S) at Gaochang (GC) station in Min River, Wulong (WL) station in Wu River, Ankang (AK), Huangjiagang (HJG) and Huangzhuang (HZ) station in Han River, and Cuntan (CT) station on the main stream of the upper Yangtze River. It is found that Q and S at six stations have obvious changes induced by reservoirs, the mean of Q decreases by 22.8%–60.6%, and S drops by 47.7%–89.5% after the change-point of time series. The nonstationary probability distribution models with GRRI as the covariate have better fitting effects than nonstationary models with RR as the covariate. With the incorporation of the impacts of effective rainfall, the GRRI can more accurately capture the occurrence of nonstationarity in the downstream hydrological frequency. These results might be helpful for exploring the impact mechanism of the reservoir regulation on the downstream hydrological variables as well as ecological management of basin.

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“…The statistical characteristics of annual runoff series exhibit complex, nonstationary changes. This change not only poses a serious threat to regional water resources security [1][2][3][4] but also leads to the inability to analyze, predict, and manage water resources effectively, which is because the analysis method of the traditional design annual runoff based on the stationary assumption is no longer applicable. If the traditional frequency analysis method is forcibly used to calculate the design annual runoff and taken as the basis of hydraulic engineering design and water resources planning and management, the rationality and safety of design or planning will be questioned.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency Analysis of the Nonstationary Annual Runoff Series Using the Mechanism-Based Reconstruction Method

Shi

Qin

2022

Water

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Due to climate change and human activities, the statistical characteristics of annual runoff series of many rivers around the world exhibit complex nonstationary changes, which seriously impact the frequency analysis of annual runoff and are thus becoming a hotspot of research. A variety of nonstationary frequency analysis methods has been proposed by many scholars, but their reliability and accuracy in practical application are still controversial. The recently proposed Mechanism-based Reconstruction (Me-RS) method is a method to deal with nonstationary changes in hydrological series, which solves the frequency analysis problem of the nonstationary hydrological series by transforming nonstationary series into stationary Me-RS series. Based on the Me-RS method, a calculation method of design annual runoff under the nonstationary conditions is proposed in this paper and applied to the Jialu River Basin (JRB) in northern Shaanxi, China. From the aspects of rationality and uncertainty, the calculated design value of annual runoff is analyzed and evaluated. Then, compared with the design values calculated by traditional frequency analysis method regardless of whether the sample series is stationary, the correctness of the Me-RS theory and its application reliability is demonstrated. The results show that calculation of design annual runoff based on the Me-RS method is not only scientific in theory, but also the obtained design values are relatively consistent with the characteristics of the river basin, and the uncertainty is obviously smaller. Therefore, the Me-RS provides an effective tool for annual runoff frequency analysis under nonstationary conditions.

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Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of the Weihe River Annual Runoff Series Using De-Nonstationarity Method

Cited by 4 publications

References 24 publications

Attribution of nonstationary changes in the annual runoff of the Weihe River using the de-nonstationarity method

Attribution of nonstationary changes in the annual runoff of the Weihe River using the de-nonstationarity method

Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream hydrological frequency based on a general rainfall-reservoir index

Frequency Analysis of the Nonstationary Annual Runoff Series Using the Mechanism-Based Reconstruction Method

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