Nonparametric double additive cure survival models: An application to the estimation of the non-linear effect of age at first parenthood on fertility progression

Bremhorst, Vincent; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Lambert, Philippe

doi:10.1177/1471082x18784685

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 55 publications

(78 reference statements)

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“…second births when data are censored (Klesment et al 2014;Kreyenfeld 2002). More recently, some studies have used cure models, which allow for the estimation of the share of people who have not experienced a second birth when analysing transition rates (Bremhorst et al 2019;Matysiak/Vignoli 2019). Instead, we separate the analysis of transition occurrences from that of the timing of second births.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transitions to Second Birth and Birth Intervals in France and Spain: Time Squeeze or Social Norms?

Compans

Beaujouan

García

2023

CPoS

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As first births are increasingly postponed across Europe, a strong two-child family norm persists. Past research has examined educational differentials in progressions to second birth, testing various hypotheses but overlooking normative aspects. Comparing fertility surveys from France and Spain, we explore whether late first-time mothers, who have fewer reproductive biological years left to conceive, accelerate the transition to a subsequent child (time squeeze effect). We also consider a normative dimension, i.e., whether women have their first child earlier or later than others in their educational and cohort groups. In both countries, among first-time mothers between 25 and 34 years of age, highly-educated women transitioned to second birth more frequently than less-educated women did. Within the same age group, highly-educated women in Spain had a second child more quickly after the firstborn than their less educated counterparts did, while there is no such difference in France. These results hold after controlling for cohort effects, but are only partly explained by a time squeeze effect. Different normative ages at first birth by education and birth cohort explain the educational gap in the likelihood of transitioning to second birth, but not the birth intervals in Spain. In sum, our analysis demonstrates a persistent educational gap in second births in this country that cannot be reduced to biological or normative effects. This suggests that a broad range of economic constraints play a role, such as unfavourable individual economic conditions and lower levels of institutional support for parenthood.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transitions to Second Birth and Birth Intervals in France and Spain: Time Squeeze or Social Norms?

Compans

Beaujouan

García

2023

CPoS

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“…Previous studies at the individual level show that gender, age, marriage, religion, house, social equity is closely correlated with residents’ happiness [ 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 ]. Therefore, Gender, Age, Age 2 , Religion, House, Marriage and Social equity were set as the control variables ( Table 1 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gender and Religion were set as dummy variables. Considering the possible non-linear effect of the age of the residents on their happiness [ 28 , 29 ], we introduced the square term of residents’ age as the control variable [ 29 ]. Some studies have pointed out that housing area has become an important factor affecting individual’s happiness [ 30 , 31 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air Pollution Impairs Subjective Happiness by Damaging Their Health

Liu

Zhu

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Background: The impact of air pollution on residents’ happiness remains unclear and the underlying mechanism remains unknown. We aimed to examine the direct effect of air pollution on residents’ happiness and indirect effect through mediating their health. Methods: Based on the 2017 China Comprehensive Social Survey Data (CGSS), data on happiness were retrieved from 11,997 residents in 28 provinces in China. An ordered-probit model was used to examine the effect of air pollution on residents’ happiness and health, respectively. A stepwise regression was used to derive the direct effect of air pollution on residents’ happiness and indirect effect from health impairment attributable to air pollution. Results: Air pollution was associated with lower levels of health (coef. −0.190, 95% CI −0.212, −0.167, p < 0.001), while health was positively associated with happiness (coef. 0.215, 95% CI 0.196, 0.234, p < 0.001). Mediation analysis methods showed that air pollution impacted residents’ happiness directly and indirectly: the percent of total effect that was mediated through health was 36.97%, and the ratio of indirect to direct effect was 0.5864. Conclusions: Health plays a major mediating role in the relation between air pollution and residents’ happiness. In order to alleviate the impact of air pollution on residents’ happiness, future strategies should focus on health promotion besides reducing air pollutant emission.

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“…5/ Tsodikov (2002) proposed, in a frequentist framework, a non-parametric estimator of the baseline survival function S 0 .t/, whereas Yin and Ibrahim (2005), using a piecewise exponential distribution, and , using P-splines, suggested a flexible specification of S 0 .t/ in a Bayesian framework; see Gressani and Lambert (2018) for fast inference in that Bayesian setting. Recently, several extensions of the promotion time model have been proposed in the literature; see for example Liu and Shen (2009), Kim et al (2009), Lopes and Bolfarine (2012), Li and Lee (2017) and Bremhorst et al (2019). Our paper is motivated by the analysis of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (Wagner et al, 2007) studying the transition to second and third births.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inclusion of Time-Varying Covariates in Cure Survival Models with an Application in Fertility Studies

Lambert

Bremhorst

2019

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society

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Summary Cure survival models are used when we desire to acknowledge explicitly that an unknown proportion of the population studied will never experience the event of interest. An extension of the promotion time cure model enabling the inclusion of time‐varying covariates as regressors when modelling (simultaneously) the probability and the timing of the monitored event is presented. Our proposal enables us to handle non‐monotone population hazard functions without a specific parametric assumption on the baseline hazard. This extension is motivated by and illustrated on data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel by studying the transition to second and third births in West Germany.

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Nonparametric double additive cure survival models: An application to the estimation of the non-linear effect of age at first parenthood on fertility progression

Cited by 6 publications

References 55 publications

Transitions to Second Birth and Birth Intervals in France and Spain: Time Squeeze or Social Norms?

Transitions to Second Birth and Birth Intervals in France and Spain: Time Squeeze or Social Norms?

Air Pollution Impairs Subjective Happiness by Damaging Their Health

Inclusion of Time-Varying Covariates in Cure Survival Models with an Application in Fertility Studies

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