Nonlinear Time Series Forecasts for Decision Support: Short-Term Demand for ICU Beds in Santiago, Chile During the 2021 COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

In Chile, due to the explosive increase of new COVID-19 cases during the first part of 2021, the ability of health services to accommodate new incoming cases was jeopardized. It has become necessary to be able to manage intensive care unit (ICU) capacity, and for this purpose, monitoring both the evolution of new cases and the demand of ICU beds, has become urgent. This paper presents short-term forecast models for the number of new cases and the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs in the Metropolitan Region in Chile.