Nonlinear Markov Chain Modelling of the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) Pandemic

Abstract

Almost all countries around the world are struggling against the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. In this paper, a nonlinear Markov chains model is proposed in order to analyse and to understand the behaviour of the Covid-19 pandemic. The data from China was used to build up the presented model. Thereafter, the nonlinear Markov chain model is employed to estimate the daily new Covid-19 cases in some countries including Italy, Spain, France, UK, the USA, Germany, Turkey, and Kuwait. In addition, the correlation between the daily new Covid-19 cases and the daily number of deaths is examined.

A Markov Chain Model for COVID19 in Mexico City

“…General stochastic processes are widely used in epidemic analysis, bayesian models also have been used in the study of COVID19, for example [Allen, 2017, Arumugam and Rajathi, 2020, Bertozzi et al, 2020, Britton, 2010, Catak and Duran, 2020, Kharroubi, 2020, Mbuvha and Marwala, 2020, Silva et al, 2020, Şenel et al, 2020, Zhang and Du, 2020.…”