Non-tropical Cyclone Related Winter Heavy Rainfall Events over the Philippines: Climatology and Mechanisms

Olaguera, Lyndon Mark P.; Matsumoto, Jun; Dado, Julie Mae; Narisma, Gemma

doi:10.1007/s13143-019-00165-2

Cited by 12 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The cold surge shearline is formed by the interaction of the trailing end of an eastward propagating cold front over the north Pacific and the warm easterly winds from the equatorial region (e.g., Olaguera et al 2021). Enhanced convergence is apparent along the cold surge shearline since warm winds are forced to ascend in the troposphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synoptic conditions and potential causes of the extreme heavy rainfall event of January 2009 over Mindanao Island, Philippines

et al. 2021

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This study investigates the synoptic conditions that led to the heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) event in Mindanao Island, Philippines (122 −127°E; 5 −10°N), on January 2009 (JAN2009 HRF) that are less emphasized in previous works. Extensive flooding was reported over Cagayan de Oro City in the northern part of Mindanao, where the rainfall on January 10, 11, and 13, 2009, exceeded the 99th percentile of daily rainfall records of all January of the city from 1979 to 2017 by almost two times. A similar exceedance was also felt in Hinatuan station over the eastern coast of Mindanao Island on January 15, 2009. The interaction of a cold surge shearline over the northern Mindanao Island and the warm tropical easterlies led to enhanced moisture convergence. The warmer air mass is forced to ascend by the advancing colder air mass because it has lower density than the colder air mass. The enhanced moisture convergence and buoyancy difference by the air masses led to enhanced ascent and consequently rainfall along the cold surge shearline. Further analysis shows that enhanced anomalous easterly and northerly winds at 925 hPa are apparent over the Philippines. The anomalous easterly winds sustained the supply of warmer easterlies and collaboratively interacted with the northerly winds that supplied colder temperature air mass.The climatology of this HRF event was examined for all January from 1979 to 2017. The authors identified 15 other cases that are similar to the JAN2009 HRF event and performed lag composite analyses. The results show that the occurrence of these HRF events is facilitated by the southward expansion of the high-pressure system to the north of the Philippines, enhanced cold and warm temperature advections, and enhanced moisture convergence along the cold surge shearline. The results of this study have important implications for disaster mitigation during the northeast monsoon season when rainfall activities are, in general, less intensive over this region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synoptic conditions and potential causes of the extreme heavy rainfall event of January 2009 over Mindanao Island, Philippines

et al. 2021

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“…The impact of deformation zones on the rainfall of the Philippines is more frequent during the winter monsoon season. In fact, some heavy rainfall events during this season are associated with shearlines, which is locally referred to as the effect of the “tail‐end of the cold front” (Faustino‐Eslava et al ., ; Yumul et al ., ; Olaguera et al ., ). Olaguera et al .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Olaguera et al . () examined a winter heavy rainfall event case on January 16, 2017 over Mindanao Island in the southern Philippines and associated it with a shearline that was formed by the interaction of a low‐pressure area over Mindanao Island and the enhanced northeasterlies to its north. They further noted that a cold front associated with these northeasterlies interacted with the warm and humid tropical air mass and resulted in the heavy rainfall event.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, some heavy rainfall events during this season are associated with shearlines, which is locally referred to as the effect of the "tail-end of the cold front" (Faustino-Eslava et al, 2011;Yumul et al, 2013;Olaguera et al, 2020). Olaguera et al (2020) examined a winter heavy rainfall event case on January 16, 2017 over Mindanao Island in the southern Philippines and associated it with a shearline that was formed by the interaction of a low-pressure area over Mindanao Island and the enhanced northeasterlies to its north. They further noted that a cold front associated with these northeasterlies interacted with the warm and humid tropical air mass and resulted in the heavy rainfall event.…”

Section: Impact Of Deformation Zone On the Rainfall Over The Philippinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A climatological study of the wet and dry conditions in the pre‐summer monsoon season of the Philippines

Olaguera

Matsumoto

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates the climatology of the wet and dry conditions in the presummer monsoon season of the Philippines that are less emphasized in previous works. Wet cases (Type W), which account for about 23% of the total presummer monsoon days from 1979 to 2015, are identified from April 1 to the monsoon onset defined by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The differences between the Type W and dry cases (Type D) are presented. The synoptic conditions associated with the Type W and Type D cases are sub-divided into two sub-types based on the wind conditions, the (a) westerly winds at 925 hPa (WINDS 925hPa ) intrusion over Luzon Island (120 -122.5 E, 12.5 -22 N) (Type W W and Type D W ), and (b) enhanced easterly WINDS 925hPa (Type W E and Type D E ). The Type W E (Type W W ) cases account for about 63.9% (36.1%) of the total Type W cases,

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“…More quantitative analysis are needed to firmly present the effect of TCs on the rainfall over the Philippines. Moreover, in addition to TCs, some other synoptic systems, such as midlatitude front or disturbances (e.g., Olaguera and Matsumoto, 2019;Olaguera et al, 2020a), or local rain systems such as diurnally driven local circulation are also contributing to the rainfall. The contribution from these systems on climatological rainfall seasonal changes should also be studied in future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatological seasonal changes of wind and rainfall in the Philippines

Matsumoto

Olaguera

Nguyen-Le

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climatological seasonal changes of rainfall and lower tropospheric circulation in and around the Philippines are analysed by utilizing the TRMM 3B42 to obtain the 5‐day mean rainfall and ERA‐Interim wind data for the period 1998–2013. In particular, climatological onset and withdrawal processes of the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoon are investigated. It is found that the onset of the SW monsoon occurs abruptly in mid‐May almost simultaneously over the Philippines except in the southern region. The start of the SW monsoon in the Philippines occurs earlier in the north than in the south. In addition, a climatological increase in rainfall on the west coast precedes the SW monsoon arrival by approximately two pentads, due to tropical cyclone influences in some years. After the SW monsoon onset, the monsoon trough is located over the southern Philippines. In mid‐June, the monsoon trough begins to deepen, and migrates northward to the central Philippines, and easterly winds intrude shortly to the northern Philippines. Then, the entire Philippines is covered by the summer monsoon westerly in early July, which is followed by the rainfall peak over the west coast region occurring in early August. The SW monsoon begins to retreat from the north in mid‐September, and fully retreats from the Philippines rather suddenly in late September. In general, the rainfall amount in the west coastal region remains high for approximately 2 months after this wind reversal, showing relatively larger post monsoon rainfall due mainly to tropical cyclone effects. During the NE monsoon season, the rainfall centre in the east coast is located in the northern and central region until mid‐December. Afterwards it is anchored in the southern region from late December to mid‐March, indicating the fully established NE monsoon season.

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Non-tropical Cyclone Related Winter Heavy Rainfall Events over the Philippines: Climatology and Mechanisms

Cited by 12 publications

References 27 publications

Synoptic conditions and potential causes of the extreme heavy rainfall event of January 2009 over Mindanao Island, Philippines

Synoptic conditions and potential causes of the extreme heavy rainfall event of January 2009 over Mindanao Island, Philippines

A climatological study of the wet and dry conditions in the pre‐summer monsoon season of the Philippines

Climatological seasonal changes of wind and rainfall in the Philippines

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