Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis and Uncertainty of Heat Wave Events

Abstract

Due to global warming, there is an increasing concern regarding persistent and severe heat waves. The maximum daily surface air temperature observations show strong non-stationary features, and the increased intensity and persistence of heat wave events have been observed in many regions. The heat wave persistence day frequency (HPF) curve, which correlates the intensity of a heat wave persistence event for days with return periods, can be a useful tool to analyze the frequency of heat wave events. In this study, non-stationary HPF curves are developed to explain the trend in the increase of the surface air temperature due to climate change, and their uncertainty is analyzed. The non-stationary HPF model can be used in climate change adaptation management such as public health, public safety, and energy management.