Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis: a simplified approach for Earth science applications

Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Sartini, Ludovica; Feyen, Luc; Besio, Giovanni; Alfieri, Lorenzo

doi:10.5194/hess-2016-65

Cited by 20 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The resulting storm surge level and H s time series are combined to generate η CE time series according to Eq. ( 2 ) and η CE values for different return periods are obtained using a stationary version of a non-stationary extreme value analysis package 42 . Even though the 100-year return period is discussed in the manuscript, the dataset includes also data for the 5, 10, 20, 50, 200, 500, 1000 year events.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following, non-stationary extreme value statistical analysis 42 is applied to obtain η CE values for different return periods. Similar to η tide , the final η CE projections are obtained after adjusting the reanalysis values according to the relative changes obtained from the CMIP5 simulations (equation 5 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The WW3 code is available in http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/wavewatch/license.shtml . The code applied for the non-stationary extreme value statistics 42 available in https://github.com/menta78/tsEva .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

et al. 2018

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Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

et al. 2018

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“…Waves and storm surges were combined into η w − ss time series obtained according to equation (2), and to which non‐stationary extreme value statistical analysis (EVA) was applied [ Mentaschi et al , ]. The statistical analysis consisted in (1) applying a time‐varying normalization to transform the non‐stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory was applied; and (2) reverse‐transforming the result into a non‐stationary extreme value distribution.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

et al. 2017

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Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST. Plain Language SummaryFuture extreme sea levels and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Here, we show changes in all acting components, i.e., sea level rise, tides, waves, and storm surges, until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century the 100-year event along Europe will on average increase between 57 and 81 cm. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase, amounting to nearly 1 m under a high emission scenario by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20-30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year coastal flood event could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming.

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“…Subsequently, non-stationary extreme value statistical analysis (EVA) was applied to the 30-year η W-SS time series allowing the estimation of extreme η W-SS values for different return periods. The statistical analysis consisted in (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse-transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution; this is described in detail in Mentaschi et al (2016). The values presently considered correspond to the 100-year present-day event along the European coastline (Fig.…”

Section: Total Water Level Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping

Vousdoukas

Voukouvalas

Mentaschi

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coastal flooding related to marine extreme events has severe socioeconomic impacts, and even though the latter are projected to increase under the changing climate, there is a clear deficit of information and predictive capacity related to coastal flood mapping. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining (i) the contribution of waves to the total water level; (ii) improved inundation modeling; and (iii) an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded, whenever new and more accurate data become available. Four inundation approaches of gradually increasing complexity and computational costs were evaluated in terms of their applicability to large-scale coastal flooding mapping: static inundation (SM); a semidynamic method, considering the water volume discharge over the dykes (VD); the flood intensity index approach (Iw); and the model LISFLOOD-FP (LFP). A validation test performed against observed flood extents during the Xynthia storm event showed that SM and VD can lead to an overestimation of flood extents by 232 and 209 %, while Iw and LFP showed satisfactory predictive skill. Application at panEuropean scale for the present-day 100-year event confirmed that static approaches can overestimate flood extents by 56 % compared to LFP; however, Iw can deliver results of reasonable accuracy in cases when reduced computational costs are a priority. Moreover, omitting the wave contribution in the extreme total water level (TWL) can result in a ∼ 60 % underestimation of the flooded area. The present findings have implications for impact assessment studies, since combination of the estimated inundation maps with population exposure maps revealed differences in the estimated number of people affected within the 20-70 % range.

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Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis: a simplified approach for Earth science applications

Cited by 20 publications

References 34 publications

Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe's coasts

Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping

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