Non-invasive Fibrosis Markers for Predicting Esophageal Varices: A Potential Alternative to Endoscopic Screening

Abstract

Background: Chronic liver infections and diseases lead to chronic liver injury, which results in fibrosis. Due to this continuous scarring and regeneration, cirrhosis occurs, which is also responsible for several adverse sequelae, including but not limited to esophageal varices. Cirrhosis has resulted in patients' increased morbidity and mortality, especially in low socioeconomic settings such as Pakistan. Endoscopy is the gold standard for measuring the presence or absence of esophageal varices, along with their grade. Currently, some non-invasive markers (aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), fibrosis 4 (FIB-4), AAR to platelet ratio index (AARPRI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), S-index, King’s score) are being established that make use of laboratory tests, such as a complete blood profile, liver function profile, and coagulation profile, to estimate the extent of hepatic fibrosis. Objectives: The objective of this study is to establish a correlation between non-invasive markers of fibrosis and the presence of esophageal varices and to assess their potential as a substitute for gastrointestinal endoscopy screening. Additionally, the study aims to compare these six scores, thereby generating data on their individual and relative accuracy. Methodology: This was a cross-sectional study conducted at the Shalamar Institute of Health Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan. Outpatient (OPD) data were obtained from the Shalamar online portal system from June 2022 to December 2022. Laboratory tests, abdominal ultrasounds, and endoscopy results were accessed and recorded in the questionnaire. The patient’s medical records and contact numbers were also noted in case further questions arose. Data were then compiled into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (Microsoft Corp., Redmond, WA) and analyzed after computing the non-invasive procedure formulas. It was analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 20.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY). P-values were calculated, and conclusions were drawn. Results: Of the sample size of 100 patients with liver damage and injury, 60% were male and 40% were female. Among males, 15% had a milder (grade 1) degree of esophageal varices, and 45% had a moderate to advanced degree (grades 2-3) of esophageal varices. Among females, 19% had mild (grade 1) varices, while 21% had severe (grade 3) varices. The most common cause of varices in patients who had developed fibrosis and/or cirrhosis was hepatitis C, with a wide margin of other causes. The p-values obtained showed that from the selected list of non-invasive markers of fibrosis, only FIB-4 and AARPRI were statistically significant with p-values of 0.036 and 0.022, respectively. Practical implications: Though endoscopy is currently the gold-standard procedure for detecting the presence or absence and grade of esophageal varices, it is invasive, which makes the patients extremely uncomfortable and apprehensive. It can also lead to post-procedure infec...