Nomograms that predict the survival of patients with adenocarcinoma in villous adenoma of the colorectum: a SEER-based study

Abstract

Background: Considering that the knowledge of adenocarcinoma in villous adenoma of the colorectum is limited to several case reports, we designed a study to investigate independent prognostic factors and developed nomograms for predicting the survival of patients. Methods: Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate prognostic factors. A nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) was performed; internally and externally validated; evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, and decision curve analyses; and compared to the 7th TNM stage. Results: Patients with adenocarcinoma in villous adenoma of the colorectum had a 1-year overall survival (OS) rate of 88.3% (95% CI: 87.1-89.5%), a 3-year OS rate of 75.1% (95% CI: 73.3-77%) and a 5-year OS rate of 64.5% (95% CI: 62-67.1%). Nomograms for 1-, 3-and 5-year CSS predictions were constructed and performed better with a higher C-index than the 7th TNM staging (internal: 0.716 vs 0.663; P < 0.001; external: 0.713 vs 0.647; P < 0.001). Additionally, the nomogram showed good agreement between internal and external validation. According to DCA analysis, compared to the 7th TNM stage, the nomogram showed a greater benefit across the period of follow-up regardless of the internal cohort or external cohort. Conclusion: Age, race, T stage, pathologic grade, N stage, tumor size and M stage were prognostic factors for both OS and CSS. The constructed nomograms were more effective and accurate for predicting the 1-, 3-and 5-year CSS of patients with adenocarcinoma in villous adenoma than 7th TNM staging.

A nomogram for individually predicting the overall survival in colonic adenocarcinoma patients presenting with perineural invasion: a population study based on SEER database

“…These models not only integrate intricate prognostic factors but also facilitate the calculation and prediction of survival rates for individual patients using a straightforward numerical valuation system (11, 12). Moreover, certain nomograms have demonstrated superiority over the AJCC TNM system in predicting tumor survival (13,14). In the context of colon cancer, numerous researchers have developed pertinent clinical prediction models (15,16).…”