Nomogram for predicting the survival of gastric adenocarcinoma patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy

Abstract

Background: Surgery is the only way to cure gastric adenocarcinoma (GAC), and chemotherapy is the basic adjuvant management for GAC. A significant prognostic nomogram for predicting the respective disease-specific survival (DSS) rates of GAC patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy has not been established.Objective: We were planning to establish a survival nomogram model for GAC patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy. Methods: We identified 5764 GAC patients who had received surgery and chemotherapy from the record of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER ) database. About 70% ( n =4034) of the chosen GAC patients were randomly assigned to the training set, and the rest of the included ones ( n =1729) were assigned to the external validation set. A prognostic nomogram was constructed by the training set and the predictive accuracy of it was validated by the validation set. Results: Based on the outcome of a multivariate analysis of candidate factors, a nomogram was developed that encompassed age at diagnosis, number of regional lymph nodes examined after surgery, number of positive regional lymph nodes , sex , race, grade, derived AJCC stage, summary stage , and radiotherapy status. The C-index (Harrell’s concordance index) of the nomogram model was some larger than that of the traditional seventh AJCC staging system (0.707 vs 0.661). Calibration plots of the constructed nomogram displayed that the probability of DSS commendably accord with the survival rate. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) revealed obvious increase and categorical net reclassification improvement (NRI) showed visible enhancement. IDI for 3-, 5- and 10- year DSS were 0.058, 0.059 and 0.058, respectively ( P >0.05), and NRI for 3-, 5- and 10- year DSS were 0.380 (95% CI=0.316–0.470), 0.407 (95% CI=0.350–0.505), and 0.413 (95% CI=0.336–0.519), respectively. Decision curve analysis (DCA) proved that the constructed nomogram was preferable to the AJCC staging system. Conclusion: The constructed nomogram supplies more credible DSS predictions for GAC patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy in the general population. According to validation, the new nomogram will be beneficial in facilitating individualized survival predictions and useful when performing clinical decision-making for GAC patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy.