Nomogram for customized recurrence prediction in primary non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer based on routine blood and urine parameters

Abstract

Purpose A prevalent condition with a high probability of recurrence, non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) necessitates lifetime surveillance. In patients with pathologically confirmed NMIBC, our goal was to create a unique nomogram to predict recurrence after transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT). Methods Our institution’s 91 NMIBC patients with complete follow-up data between January 2017 and February 2021 were included in the retrospective analysis. The nomogram predicting the 0.5, 1, 2 and 3-year likelihood of recurrence was created using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models to find the significant determinants of recurrence. Using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analyses (DCA), we internally validated the nomogram. Results The significant factors related to NMIBC recurrence were age, blood platelet count, especially for the urine leukocyte count and mucus filament. The constructed nomogram performed well in the customized prediction of NMIBC recurrence at 6th, 12th, 24th and 36th month, of which the C-index was 0.724. The calibration curve and the ROC curve both validated the prediction accuracy. On DCA, the nomogram presented good net benefit gains across a wide range of threshold probabilities. Furthermore, the Nomogram-related risk score was used to divide the patient population into two groups with significant recurrence disparities. Conclusion For the prediction of NMIBC recurrence, our unique nomogram demonstrated a respectable degree of discriminative capacity, sufficient calibration, and considerable net benefit gain. There will be a need for additional internal and external validation.