Nomogram-based Prediction of Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma Receiving First-line Platinum-based Chemotherapy: Retrospective International Study of Invasive/Advanced Cancer of the Urothelium (RISC)

Abstract

Background The available prognostic models for overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) have been derived from clinical trial populations of cisplatin-treated patients. Objective To develop a new model based on ‘real world’ patients. Design, Setting, Participants Individual patient-level data from 29 centres was collected, including metastatic UC and first-line cisplatin- or carboplatin-based chemotherapy administered between 01/2006 and 01/2011. Intervention First-line, platinum-based, combination chemotherapy. Outcome measures and statistical analysis The population was randomly split into a development and a validation cohort. Generalized boosted regression modelling was used to screen out irrelevant variables and address multivariable analyses. Two nomograms were built to estimate OS probability, the first based on baseline factors and platinum agent, the second incorporating objective response (OR). The performance of the above nomograms and that of other available models was assessed. We plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the two nomograms. Results and limitations A total of 1,020 patients were analysed (development: 687; validation: 333). In a platinum-stratified Cox model, significant variables for OS were performance status (p<0.001); white blood cell count (p=0.013); body mass index (p=0.003); ethnicity (p=0.012); lung, liver, or bone metastases (p<.001); and prior perioperative chemotherapy (p=0.012). The c-index was 0.660. The distribution of the nomogram scores was associated with OR (p<0.001), and incorporating OR into the model further improved the c-index in the validation cohort (0.670). Conclusions We developed and validated two nomograms for OS to be used before and after completion of first-line chemotherapy for metastatic UC. Patient summary We proposed two models for estimating OS of patients with metastatic UC receiving firstline, platinum-based chemotherapy. These nomograms have been developed on real world patients who were treated outside of clinical trials and may be used irrespective of the chemotherapeutic platinum agent.

New nomogram predicts the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with negative preoperative serum AFP subjected to curative resection

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Lack of Effectiveness of Postchemotherapy Lymphadenectomy in Bladder Cancer Patients with Clinical Evidence of Metastatic Pelvic or Retroperitoneal Lymph Nodes Only: A Propensity Score-based Analysis

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Integrative analysis of differential genes and identification of a “2‐gene score” associated with survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

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