No Evidence for an Epidemic of Stroke with the Ageing of the Population

Abstract

Background/Aim: The ageing population in Australia may contribute to an epidemic of stroke in coming years. We aimed to assess whether deaths and hospitalisations from stroke in Australia are increasing. Methods: Nationwide age- and sex-specific hospitalisation episode data from 1996 to 1997 were used to predict future hospitalisations from stroke. Age- and sex-specific mortality data from 1997 were used to predict future mortality from stroke. These predictions were based on an expected increase in the population’s age and population growth. We compared these estimates to those observed in national figures for the following 9 years. Results: Based on 1996–1997 hospitalisation rates, we calculated that hospitalisations for stroke would be expected to rise from 27,399 to 35,041 in 2005–2006. Using 1997 mortality rates, deaths from stroke would be expected to rise from 9,126 to 12,726 in 2007. Observed hospitalisations (2005–2006) were 6,380 fewer than expected, while deaths (2007) were 4,103 fewer than expected. This represents a 2.21% annual reduction in hospitalisation rate, and a 4.0% annual reduction in mortality rate. Conclusion: Encouragingly, hospitalisation and mortality rates for stroke appear to be declining. If these figures reflect actual occurrences of stroke then it may be that primary and secondary prevention strategies are working.

Trends Over Time in the Risk of Stroke After an Incident Transient Ischemic Attack

“…This decline in those ≥65 years is consistent with overall patterns of reduction in stroke incidence 3,4 and incidence of TIA in the developed world.…”

“…2 Several preventative interventions for cardiovascular disease have gained ground for the last 2 decades, including the use of antiplatelet, blood pressure, and lipid-lowering agents and lifestyle programs for smoking and obesity. There is evidence that the incidence, 3 hospitalization, and mortality rates for stroke overall 4 are declining in Belgium (1984Belgium ( -1999, Rochester (1985Rochester ( -1989, and more recently in France (2002France ( -2006. [5][6][7] It is unknown whether these trends extend to the risk of stroke after TIA, as people with TIA represent a high-risk group.…”

Hip Fracture After Stroke in the Elderly: Trends in the Beginning of the 21st Century and Projections into the Future in Australia

“…124 In Australia, over recent decades the number of hospitalisations for stroke remained stable, and there was an annual reduction of 4.0% in mortality rate. 30 The decline in stroke mortality, which was also observed in Western Europe and North America, 24,118,125 together with population ageing may explain the rise of the number and incidence rates of stroke survivors observed in this study. Therefore, an increase in the proportion of stroke survivors among the HF population can be expected.…”

“…The case ascertainment should be near complete, because in Australia all cases of HF are hospitalized and the stroke admittance rate is also high. 30,149,150 There are, however, several limitations that should be considered. First, our findings are limited to one Australian territory with predominantly Caucasian population and may not be representative in other ethnic populations.…”

“…[16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] In the last decade in different Australian states and territories, the age-standardized osteoporotic HF incidence rates decreased, although the absolute number of HF cases has continued to rise. [25][26][27][28][29] For stroke, there was an annual reduction of 4.0% in mortality rate, 30 patients with first-ever and recurrent strokes were included in the primary database, only the first event was included in the final analysis. Patients aged 60 years were excluded in the present study.…”