Abstract. Harmonic oscillator model-space truncations introduce systematic errors to the calculation of binding energies and other observables. We identify the relevant infrared scaling variable and give values for this nucleus-dependent quantity. We consider isotopes of oxygen computed with the coupled-cluster method from chiral nucleon-nucleon interactions at next-to-next-to-leading order and show that the infrared component of the error is sufficiently understood to permit controlled extrapolations. By employing oscillator spaces with relatively large frequencies, well above the energy minimum, the ultraviolet corrections can be suppressed while infrared extrapolations over tens of MeVs are accurate for ground-state energies. However, robust uncertainty quantification for extrapolated quantities that fully accounts for systematic errors is not yet developed.