Niche modeling predictions of the potential distribution of Marmota himalayana, the host animal of plague in Yushu County of Qinghai

Lu, Liang; Ren, Zhoupeng; Yue, Yujuan; Yu, Xiaotao; Lu, Shan; Li, Guichang; Li, Hailong; Wei, Jianchun; Liu, Jingli; Mu, You; Hai, Rong; Yang, Yonghai; Wei, Rongjie; Kan, Biao; Wang, Hu; Wang, Jinfeng; Wang, Zuyun; Liu, Qiyong; Xu, Jianguo

doi:10.1186/s12889-016-2697-6

Cited by 18 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(43 reference statements)

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“…ENM method is an especially effective method to predict the potential risks of a disease [ 37 – 39 ], as identifying the potential risk distribution of human disease is a very complex task [ 40 ]. Among the numerous ENM methods, Maxent has been identified as the best algorithm [ 41 , 42 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scrub typhus in Jiangsu Province, China: epidemiologic features and spatial risk analysis

Sun²,

et al. 2018

BMC Infect Dis

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BackgroundWith the increasing incidence of scrub typhus in recent years, it is of great value to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus by applying micro-geographical studies at a reasonably fine scale, and to guide the control and management.MethodsWe explored the use of maximum entropy modelling method to confirm the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus according to the occurrence locations of human cases in Jiangsu Province. The risk prediction map under specific environmental factors was therefore drawn by projecting the training model across China. The area under the curve and the omission rate were used to validate the model. Meanwhile, Jackknife tests were applied to enumerate the contribution of different environmental variables, then to predict the final model. The predicted results were validated by using China’s known occurrence locations.ResultsA total of 566 occurrence locations with known 4865 scrub typhus occurrence records were used in our study. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.17:1, and people in any age group could be infected. The number of cases presented an inverted-U relation with age. The percentage of cases aged from 60 to 69 years old was the highest, accounting for 30.50% of all cases. Ecological niche modelling results indicated that the locations of scrub typhus cases, which was of great importance in the disease transmission cycle, had a certain ecological niche with environmental elements in many dimensions. Moreover, the key environmental factors for determining scrub typhus occurrence were temperature (including temperature seasonality, min temperature of coldest month, mean diurnal range, and monthly mean temperature), precipitation of wettest month, and land cover types. The risk prediction maps indicated that mid-eastern China was the potential risk areas for scrub typhus of “autumn type”. Meanwhile, in our results, Guangdong Province was the high-risk region for “autumn type” scrub typhus, where cases were mainly reported as “summer type”.ConclusionThe combination of climatic and geographic factors with GIS methods is an appropriate option to analyse and estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scrub typhus in Jiangsu Province, China: epidemiologic features and spatial risk analysis

Sun²,

et al. 2018

BMC Infect Dis

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“…Human cases have been used as presence data in a number of previous studies to develop ENMs for determining potential vector distribution in different settings [20, 71, 72]. …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first approach involves modeling the species, with occurrence data, that participate in the transmission cycle [14, 16, 74] while the second approach analyzes the distribution of disease occurrence, as if it was a species, considering the entire transmission cycle and its ecological relationships [20, 71, 72]. In addition to this, P. argentipes has been shown to be the single proven vector of L. donovani in the study area [50]; thus, its distribution could reasonably be determined by the same environmental variables used to model the distribution of the disease.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The AUC of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) is a threshold-independent method that was used to calculate the total AUC of the sensitivity versus the fractional predicted area [77]. Models with AUC values from 0.75 to 0.90 are considered very useful, and >0.90 is considered highly accurate [72, 84]. The threshold-dependent measure was based on minimum training presence and used a one-tail binomial test.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Environmental factors associated with the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in endemic areas of Bangladesh: modeling the ecological niche

et al. 2017

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BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic infection (also called kala-azar in South Asia) caused by Leishmania donovani that is a considerable threat to public health in the Indian subcontinent, including densely populated Bangladesh. The disease seriously affects the poorest subset of the population in the subcontinent. Despite the fact that the incidence of VL results in significant morbidity and mortality, its environmental determinants are relatively poorly understood, especially in Bangladesh. In this study, we have extracted a number of environmental variables obtained from a range of sources, along with human VL cases collected through several field visits, to model the distribution of disease which may then be used as a surrogate for determining the distribution of Phlebotomus argentipes vector, in hyperendemic and endemic areas of Mymensingh and Gazipur districts in Bangladesh. The analysis was carried out within an ecological niche model (ENM) framework using a maxent to explore the ecological requirements of the disease.ResultsThe results suggest that VL in the study area can be predicted by precipitation during the warmest quarter of the year, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference water index (NDWI). As P. argentipes is the single proven vector of L. donovani in the study area, its distribution could reasonably be determined by the same environmental variables. The analysis further showed that the majority of VL cases were located in mauzas where the estimated probability of the disease occurrence was high. This may reflect the potential distribution of the disease and consequently P. argentipes in the study area.ConclusionsThe results of this study are expected to have important implications, particularly in vector control strategies and management of risk associated with this disease. Public health officials can use the results to prioritize their visits in specific areas. Further, the findings can be used as a baseline to model how the distribution of the disease caused by P. argentipes might change in the event of climatic and environmental changes that resulted from increased anthropogenic activities in Bangladesh and elsewhere.

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“…The paralysis of disease surveillance and control system were caused by the earthquake, the conditions conducive to the occurrence and spread of infectious diseases were increased, therefore, the most important content in the earthquake relief work was preventing the outbreak of anthropozoonosis. After the disaster, the veterinarian department actively devoted in the epidemic prevention work, and it showed that the veterinarian played an important role in the prevention and control work of anthropozoonosis after the disaster [1][2][3]. In fact, the veterinarian participated in the earthquake relief work of Indian Ocean Tsunami and Kashmir Earthquake in 2005.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Hazard Factors and Preventive Measures of Zoonotic Disease in Earthquake Area

Chen¹

2017

Proceedings of the 2017 7th International Conference on Applied Science, Engineering and Technology (ICASET 2017)

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Abstract. Objective: After earthquake occurring in pastoral areas, due to the reasons such as many animals are dead, drinking water is polluted, the condition of food hygiene is poor, the weather is hot and the other factors, it is extremely easy to occur anthropozoonosis. The purpose of this study is to prevent the occurrence of anthropozoonosis in earthquake area. Method: Through collecting the information in the disaster area, implementing the emergency action and other aspects to carry out the anthropozoonosis prevention and control work under the post-earthquake emergency in the paper according to the veterinarian's work in the earthquake relief work. Result: Three stages of epidemic prevention are established in the paper according to the information collection and analysis result in the earthquake affected area, the planning and deployment of epidemic prevention work are conducted according to the features at these three stages. Conclusion: The prevention and control of anthropozoonosis in the earthquake disaster area can guarantee the life health of the people in the disaster area, it is also an important content of animal health work, and the experience in the research is vital for the healthy survival and life of the people and animal after the disaster.

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Niche modeling predictions of the potential distribution of Marmota himalayana, the host animal of plague in Yushu County of Qinghai

Cited by 18 publications

References 26 publications

Scrub typhus in Jiangsu Province, China: epidemiologic features and spatial risk analysis

Scrub typhus in Jiangsu Province, China: epidemiologic features and spatial risk analysis

Environmental factors associated with the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in endemic areas of Bangladesh: modeling the ecological niche

Study on Hazard Factors and Preventive Measures of Zoonotic Disease in Earthquake Area

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