Niche Acceleration Driven by Expectation Dynamics Among Niche and Regime Actors: China’s Wind and Solar Power Development

Abstract

This paper addresses the question how does the alignment of expectations between niche and regime actors unfold during niche development process, and how it shapes the niche development process? In this paper we offer a theoretical framework with three alignment patterns: strong, medium-strong and weak alignment, based on niche and regime actors' expectation structures. The research aims to establish whether the alignment patterns match three distinct stages of niche development: slow niche development; moderate niche development and substantial niche acceleration. We propose a 16% threshold in terms of adoption for niche acceleration. We apply the conceptual framework to two long-term cases, of wind and solar power development in China between 2000 and 2017. These present two independent cases with different stages of niche development during the studied period, but in the end both show niche acceleration. Our two cases suggest that although alignment patterns between both cases differ, they match niche development phases. Strong alignment does go hand in hand with niche acceleration. Overall, this paper contributes to both a conceptual and methodological understanding of how the alignment patterns between niche and regime actors' expectations contribute to niche acceleration.

Unlocking the potential of public opinions for niche development using acceptance mining

“…This can either be accomplished by adapting the practices to the existing rules of a regime (fit and conform) or by changing these rules to adhere to the practices (stretch and transform). Both approaches are considered to be part of empowerment activities (Smith and Raven, 2012; Yang et al, 2020b). According to Raven and Geels (2010), there is a considerable need to investigate “the relation between niche development paths and broader national characteristics such as public attitudes toward technology and innovation, political discourses, and trust relationships between government, market, and civil society.” In this context, it is relevant to examine the role of the public in developing technologies in niches.…”

“…Both approaches are considered to be part of empowerment activities (Smith and Raven, 2012;Yang et al, 2020b).…”

Transformative Outcomes: Assessing and Reorienting Experimentation with Transformative Innovation Policy

“…This process is assisted by the development of new policy measures, industry strategies and cultural meanings focusing on user adoption (Seyfang et al, 2014;Jolly et al, 2012). In a recent study on solar development in China, Yang et al, (2020) argue that, for technologies that induce system innovation, the bandwagon threshold may be reached when 16 percent of the potential market adopt a new niche practice, including its technology. At this threshold, new users adopt the practice, not so much because of the specific niche conditions, but because they accept the new rules embedded in the technology as a (future) mainstream option.…”