Nguyen-Widrow Neural Network for Distribution Transformer Lifetime Prediction

Rosmaliati,; Setiawati, Novie Elok; Purnomo, Mauridhi Hery; Priyadi, Ardyono

doi:10.1109/cenim.2018.8710815

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…The BPNN architecture 5-11-1 with Nguyen-Widrow initial weights can achieve excellent forecasting performance. The application of the Nguyen-Widrow Initialization algorithm has been proven to improve prediction accuracy, as shown in previous research (Aisyah et al, 2019;Rosmaliati et al, 2018). This architecture is subsequently utilized for forecasting for the next 60 days, specifically from July 11, 2023, to October 5, 2023.…”

Section: Momentummentioning

confidence: 90%

Projection of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk Share Risk Value Based on Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network Forecasting Result

Haris,

Setyaningsih,

Fauzi

et al. 2024

JTAM

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PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTAM) received an award as the most sought-after stock issuer in Indonesia in 2016. That stock continued to attract investors in 2022 due to a 105% increase in net profit and a 19% increase in sales from the previous year. Despite the upward trend, investors still had doubts due to the fluctuating movement of ANTAM's stock prices. Therefore, forecasting was needed to determine the future movement of stock prices. The Backpropagation Neural Network method had good capabilities for fluctuating data types. However, this method has the disadvantage of a lengthy iteration process. To handle this limitation, The Nguyen-Widrow weighted setting was applied to address this constraint. The expected Shortfall (ES) method used the forecasting results to measure investment risk. This research uses ANTAM stock closing price data from May 2, 2018, to May 31, 2023. Based on the analysis results, the best architecture was obtained with a configuration of 5-11-1, using Nguyen-Widrow weight initialization and a combination of a learning rate of 0.5 and momentum of 0.9. This architecture yielded a prediction error based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.9947%. Risk measurement with the ES method based on the prediction for the next 60 periods showed that at a 95% confidence level, the risk value was 0.002181; at a 90% confidence level, it was 0.002165; at an 85% confidence level, it was 0.002148, and at an 80% confidence level, it was 0.002132.

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Section: Momentummentioning

confidence: 90%