Next-generation matrices and basic reproductive numbers for all phases of the Coronavirus disease

Fosu, Gabriel Obed; Akweittey, Emmanuel; Adu-Sackey, Albert

doi:10.30538/oms2020.0117

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…The basic reproduction number (R0), also known as the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic statistic used to describe the infectious age's contagiousness or transmissibility [22]. According to the claim, Next Generation Matrix [23] are methods of constructing by evaluating matrices at free stable states. We discovered…”

Section: Basic Reproduction Numbermentioning

confidence: 99%

University Students' Procrastination: A Mathematical Model (Case Studies: Student in Mathematics Department Universitas Negeri Padang)

Winanda

Mikail

Ahmad

et al. 2022

EKSAKTA

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Mathematical modeling of procrastination was carried out on students in the Mathematics Department at Universitas Negeri Padang. Procrastination is the tendency to delay work and can be contagious among students. Mathematical modeling of procrastination aims to show the spread of procrastination among students. The SEIR compartment model was applied in this study. From a total of 1,154 population members, 93 samples were randomly selected and were given a questionnaire to estimate the parameter values in the model. A couple of steady states appear in the model. The free disease steady state has a biological meaning since all the variables are real, while the endemic steady state is surreal in biological terms. The number of its basic reproduction number, from which the parameter values are derived from the primary data, indicates stability analysis near the free disease steady states. The result shows that procrastination is spread among students in the population, with the number of Ro is 1,009.

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Section: Basic Reproduction Numbermentioning

confidence: 99%

University Students' Procrastination: A Mathematical Model (Case Studies: Student in Mathematics Department Universitas Negeri Padang)

Winanda

Mikail

Ahmad

et al. 2022

EKSAKTA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In order to introduce this hypothesis, the transmission rate parameters of presymtpomatic and asymptomatic infected are given by

where

is the time of introduction of the new variants. Using the next generation matrix, the formula for computing the basic reproduction number

, i.e., the number of individuals infected by a single infected individual during his infectious period, is [ 4 , 19 , 31 ]:

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where t var is the time of introduction of the new variants. Using the next generation matrix, the formula for computing the basic reproduction number R 0 , i.e., the number of individuals infected by a single infected individual during his infectious period, is [4,19,31]:…”

Section: Seirl-v Compartmental Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Modeling Study on Vaccination and Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Italy

Antonini¹,

Calandrini

Bianconi³

2021

Vaccines

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From the end of 2020, different vaccines against COVID-19 have been approved, offering a glimmer of hope and relief worldwide. However, in late 2020, new cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started to re-surge, worsened by the emergence of highly infectious variants. To study this scenario, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed model with lockdown measures used in our previous work with the inclusion of new lineages and mass vaccination campaign. We estimate model parameters using the Bayesian method Conditional Robust Calibration in two case studies: Italy and the Umbria region, the Italian region being worse affected by the emergence of variants. We then use the model to explore the dynamics of COVID-19, given different vaccination paces and a policy of gradual reopening. Our findings confirm the higher reproduction number of Umbria and the increase of transmission parameters due to the presence of new variants. The results illustrate the importance of preserving population-wide interventions, especially during the beginning of vaccination. Finally, under the hypothesis of waning immunity, the predictions show that a seasonal vaccination with a constant rate would probably be necessary to control the epidemic.

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“…In this section, we present the numerical simulation of the SIR model with vaccination and quarantine which is presented in [32]. The model considered a population of five compartments which are grouped into Susceptible S(t), Vaccinated class V(t), Infected class I(t), Quarantine class Q(t), and recovered class R(t).…”

Section: Numerical Illustrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic Delay Differential Equations: A Comprehensive Approach for Understanding Biosystems with Application to Disease Modelling

Babasola,

Omondi,

Oshinubi

et al. 2023

AppliedMath

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Mathematical models have been of great importance in various fields, especially for understanding the dynamical behaviour of biosystems. Several models, based on classical ordinary differential equations, delay differential equations, and stochastic processes are commonly employed to gain insights into these systems. However, there is potential to extend such models further by combining the features from the classical approaches. This work investigates stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs)-based models to understand the behaviour of biosystems. Numerical techniques for solving these models that demonstrate a more robust representation of real-life scenarios are presented. Additionally, quantitative roles of delay and noise to gain a deeper understanding of their influence on the system’s overall behaviour are analysed. Subsequently, numerical simulations that illustrate the model’s robustness are provided and the results suggest that SDDEs provide a more comprehensive representation of many biological systems, effectively accounting for the uncertainties that arise in real-life situations.

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Next-generation matrices and basic reproductive numbers for all phases of the Coronavirus disease

Cited by 10 publications

References 0 publications

University Students' Procrastination: A Mathematical Model (Case Studies: Student in Mathematics Department Universitas Negeri Padang)

University Students' Procrastination: A Mathematical Model (Case Studies: Student in Mathematics Department Universitas Negeri Padang)

A Modeling Study on Vaccination and Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Italy

Stochastic Delay Differential Equations: A Comprehensive Approach for Understanding Biosystems with Application to Disease Modelling

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